14亿人口6亿栋房子，为何开发商还在不断盖房，房价还能涨吗？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the paradox of a declining birth rate and increasing housing stock, yet developers continue to build new properties, raising questions about future housing demand and price trends [2][4][15] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the total urban housing stock in China is projected to reach 3.35 billion units, with an average of 3.62 units per person, indicating a saturated housing market [2][7] - The birth rate in China is at a record low of 6.77‰, with only 9.54 million births in 2024, contributing to an aging population and potential housing oversupply [2][7] Group 2 - Despite a significant drop in housing prices, with some areas seeing reductions of up to 30%, developers are still acquiring land at high prices, suggesting a belief in future price recovery [4][15] - Real estate agents speculate that ongoing development and improved infrastructure will eventually lead to price increases, although this is questioned given the current market conditions [5][11] - The construction of new properties continues in rural areas and small towns, despite high vacancy rates and a lack of demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of such developments [9][13] Group 3 - Developers are leveraging financial tools to maintain cash flow, often relying on a cycle of land acquisition and project pre-sales to sustain operations, which may lead to financial instability if halted [11][15] - Local governments depend on land sales for revenue, creating a cooperative dynamic between developers and authorities, which may perpetuate overbuilding despite market saturation [13] - The ongoing urbanization trend is expected to increase demand for urban housing, but the current demographic shifts suggest that rural populations may not significantly contribute to this demand [13][15]