2025五道口金融论坛|专访马克·乌赞：中美日内瓦经贸会谈后黄金大跌，释放乐观信号

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war and tariff policies are deemed dangerous and detrimental to global economic balance, with a call for new rules in the international monetary system as the dominance of the US dollar wanes [1][3][4]. Group 1: International Monetary System - The US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system is gradually decreasing, with the US currently holding about 25% of the global economy, a figure that is on the decline [3]. - The future of reserve currencies may involve shared privileges among other countries, particularly the Eurozone and potentially the Chinese yuan, although the latter's status as a reserve currency will take time to establish [3][4]. - The unpredictability of US economic policies raises questions about the future of the dollar as a reserve currency, especially in light of significant fiscal deficits and debt levels [3][4]. Group 2: Trade War Implications - The recent surge in US Treasury yields, with 30-year yields nearing 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, is attributed to the uncertainties stemming from the trade war [4]. - The trade war is viewed as a significant risk to global economic stability, with concerns about the predictability of the US economy leading to market volatility [4]. - A recent pause in the US-China trade war has provided some stability to financial markets, as evidenced by a decline in gold prices following the Geneva economic talks [4][5].