若不出意外，中国未来，超50%的人口将流入到这几个城市，房价可能报复性反弹

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant divergence, with cities that attract population inflows showing stronger price support, while those losing population are at risk of becoming illiquid assets [3][5]. Group 1: Cities with Population Inflows - The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, is a wealth hub, with Shanghai's GDP projected to exceed 5.3 trillion yuan by 2024 [6]. - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban cluster, with Beijing's GDP surpassing 4.5 trillion yuan and a resident population over 22 million, continues to attract talent due to its central enterprises and research institutions [7]. - The Pearl River Delta, featuring Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Foshan, serves as an innovation engine, with Shenzhen housing major companies like Huawei and Tencent, drawing many young professionals [9]. - Emerging cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, such as Chengdu and Wuhan, are rapidly developing, with Chengdu expected to add 280,000 residents in 2024, driving up housing prices [10]. Group 2: Future Housing Price Trends - Historical data indicates that cities with dense populations tend to have greater potential for housing price increases, as seen in Tokyo and Seoul, where significant population concentrations correlate with rising property values [12]. - Economic vitality driven by population density leads to increased tax revenue and consumer spending, creating a positive feedback loop that supports rising housing prices [13]. - Recent land auctions in cities like Hangzhou, with premium rates exceeding 65%, reflect developers' confidence in future population growth and housing demand [14]. - In Shenzhen, the average housing price has reached 56,700 yuan per square meter, driven by a surge in young residents over the past decade [15]. Group 3: Strategies for Individuals - Focus on core areas of first-tier cities, as these regions are expected to experience stronger price rebounds due to population concentration [17]. - Consider investment in strong second-tier areas with policy advantages, such as Wuhan's Guanggu East, which is being developed with significant resources [17]. - Be cautious of "pseudo-core assets," such as older high-rise buildings in third and fourth-tier cities, which may face severe depreciation [17].