“原以为美国是最大买家，结果却是中国”

Core Insights - The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline has significantly increased Canada's oil exports to China, making it the largest buyer of Canadian oil, contrary to initial expectations that the U.S. would remain the primary buyer [1][2] - The TMX pipeline, which cost approximately $24.4 billion, has doubled its capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, facilitating Canada's oil expansion into the U.S. West Coast and Asian markets [1][4] - Since the expansion, Canadian oil exports to countries outside the U.S. have surged by nearly 60%, reaching a record 183,000 barrels per day by 2024 [4] Group 1: TMX Pipeline and Its Impact - The TMX pipeline began operations in May 2022, transporting oil from Alberta to British Columbia's Pacific coast [1] - The average daily export of Canadian crude oil to China has reached approximately 207,000 barrels since the TMX expansion, compared to an average of 7,000 barrels per day over the past decade [1][4] - The pipeline's operator is considering additional expansion projects to increase capacity by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day [4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Market Shifts - The trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have led Canada to seek diversification in its oil exports, making Canadian oil more attractive to Chinese buyers [2][5] - China's imports of Canadian oil have surged, with a record 7.3 million barrels imported in March, while imports from the U.S. have plummeted from 29 million barrels to 3 million barrels per month [6] - The TMX pipeline's average utilization rate is projected to be around 77% by 2024, lower than the previously forecasted 83%, due to high tolls imposed to cover construction cost overruns [4]