CNCEC(SH:601117) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-18 06:28Group 1 - The domestic production of adiponitrile is accelerating, and the demand for civilian silk is expected to be released, indicating a broad growth space for nylon 66 (PA66) [1] - Currently, the application ratio of nylon 66 in civilian silk is low (13%), but successful breakthroughs in civilian silk technology could partially replace the nylon 6 market, which had a consumption of 4.35 million tons in 2023 [1] - China's reliance on imports of adiponitrile from the US has been high, with US companies holding a significant share of global production capacity, leading to potential price fluctuations due to trade tensions [1][2] Group 2 - Invista's adiponitrile production capacity in Shanghai is primarily for internal supply, limiting external sales, while the domestic project by China Chemical has successfully overcome technical barriers [2] - The production cost of adiponitrile is approximately 11,600 yuan per ton, with key raw materials including butadiene, natural gas, and liquid ammonia [2] - The project by China Chemical is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic adiponitrile replacement and increased demand for civilian silk [2] Group 3 - The profitability of the adiponitrile project is projected to be strong, with break-even prices estimated at 17,700 yuan per ton at 150% capacity utilization and 19,000 yuan per ton at 100% utilization [3] - The average price of domestic adiponitrile since May has been around 22,200 yuan per ton, close to the break-even line at 50% capacity utilization [3] - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to grow by 12.7%, 13.4%, and 11.2% respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 7.5, 6.6, and 6.0 times [3] Group 4 - The company is recommended for continued focus due to significant earnings elasticity from industrial projects, accelerated execution of overseas contracts, and strong cash flow [4]