方正证券：黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by increased purchases from global central banks and heightened investment demand, reflecting new characteristics in gold demand structure [1][2][3] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors and a temporary slowdown in central bank purchases, but a long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected due to declining dollar credibility and ongoing central bank gold accumulation [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold prices are determined by supply and demand balance, with supply being relatively stable due to gold's scarcity. Demand is categorized into jewelry manufacturing, industrial use, central bank purchases, and investment [4][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased in recent years, accounting for 21.77% of total demand by the end of 2024, making it a crucial factor influencing gold prices [6][9] Historical Trends - Gold's historical price movements can be divided into three phases: the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971), a period of volatility post-1971, and the current phase characterized by increased central bank purchases since 2022 [2][31] - The current phase of gold price increases is marked by central bank purchases and investor demand driven by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions [2][65] Future Outlook - Short-term corrections in gold prices may occur, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to factors such as declining dollar trust, the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][65] - The interplay of gold's financial, commodity, and monetary attributes will continue to influence its demand and pricing dynamics in the context of global economic uncertainties [18][26][70]