Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-18 07:09Core Insights - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla with a target price of $410, indicating approximately 17% upside potential, and reaffirms it as a top pick in the North American automotive sector [1] Group 1: Robot Development - Tesla's autonomous driving fleet in Austin is set to launch soon, but the initial scale will be cautious with only 10 to 20 vehicles for a limited public road test [1] - The Optimus humanoid robot is expected to be showcased in Q4, with plans for investor tours of its small-scale manufacturing facility [2] - Tesla acknowledges the potential for drones but prioritizes existing projects, citing management capacity as a significant bottleneck [3] Group 2: Cost Control and Production Plans - The target cost for the Optimus humanoid robot is set at $20,000 per unit, while the robotaxi aims for $30,000, emphasizing the importance of scalability in cost reduction [4] - Tesla plans to commercialize Optimus by mid-2026, with current production limited to "a few dozen" robots per batch at its Palo Alto lab, while Fremont's production line aims for a monthly capacity of 1,000 units, scaling up to 100,000 units [5] - The widespread adoption of household robots is expected to take several years due to the need for advancements in intelligence and cost [6] Group 3: Talent and Supply Chain Challenges - The competition for talent is intensifying, with Tesla noting a "fiercely competitive" job market, particularly in light of the rise of startups [7] - Tesla highlights the challenges of localizing supply chains in the U.S., as China currently dominates the supply chain for core next-generation technologies [8] Group 4: Computing Power and AI Development - Tesla's Dojo supercomputer is set to evolve, with plans for the D2 model in 2026, which is expected to be more efficient and cheaper than similar NVIDIA solutions, although it may not compete directly with NVIDIA [9] - The demand for computing power is projected to grow exponentially, with the next-generation AI5 expected to exceed the current AI4 by more than ten times in TOPS (trillions of operations per second) [10]