6月中旬是关键节点！若届时美日谈判未突破，日元将有走弱风险

Group 1 - The main risk facing the Japanese yen is the lack of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations, which could lead to a weakening of the yen during the summer [1][2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicated that if substantial progress is not made by mid-June, it will exacerbate fiscal and political risks in Japan, further weakening the yen [1][2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the US contrasts with the stagnation in US-Japan trade talks, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal situation [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has adopted a dovish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, reducing market expectations for interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve maintained its position, dampening expectations for rate cuts [2] - Structural factors, including record purchases of foreign stocks by Japanese trust accounts, are contributing to the ongoing pressure on the yen [3] - If US-Japan trade negotiations do not progress by mid-June, further weakness in the yen and Japanese government bonds is anticipated [2][3] Group 3 - The trend of Japanese retail investors continuing to purchase foreign stocks indicates a structural outflow of funds, which will exert long-term pressure on the yen [3] - The potential for the euro to rise against the yen if EU-US trade negotiations progress faster than those between Japan and the US could further challenge the yen's performance [3] - June mid-point is critical for observing the yen's trajectory, with significant downside risks if trade negotiations remain stalled [3]