美债利率大幅波动的原因、经验及前瞻

Group 1 - The recent significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields were primarily triggered by unexpected tariff policies announced by President Trump, leading to a sharp decline and subsequent rise in yields over three distinct phases from March 28 to April 24 [1][20][15] - The first phase saw a decline in yields due to concerns over a potential global economic recession, with 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields dropping by 29 basis points (bps) and 37 bps respectively [20] - The second phase experienced a rapid increase in yields, with 2Y yields rising by 28 bps and 10Y and 30Y yields increasing by 47 bps and 44 bps respectively, marking the largest weekly increases since the tech bubble burst in 2001 and the economic crisis in 1982 [20][15] Group 2 - The recent auction of new U.S. Treasuries faced weak demand, with the 3-year Treasury auction showing the highest tailing spread since the pandemic and the lowest bid-to-cover ratio in nearly three years, raising concerns about demand and liquidity [2][26] - Hedge funds faced significant pressure to close basis trades, leading to substantial selling pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, as the volatility in Treasury futures prices forced traders to liquidate positions [3][29] - Confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven was undermined, resulting in a simultaneous decline in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while non-U.S. assets like Japanese and European bonds, as well as gold, benefited from this shift [4][33] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that since 2007, there have been six significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the first two linked to crises that drove investors to seek safety in Treasuries, resulting in substantial declines in yields [5][40] - The most recent fluctuations in 2020 and 2023 exhibited a similar pattern of initial declines followed by increases, influenced by liquidity crises and strong economic data [5][40] Group 4 - Short-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields indicates narrow fluctuations with high market vulnerability due to multiple factors, including uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations and the potential for further volatility in financial markets [6][46] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a downward trend in yields, contingent on easing tariff uncertainties and a potential resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although concerns over debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions may elevate yield volatility [10][11]