浙商证券：风险偏好或接近历史高位 5月下旬行情有望转向小盘价值

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting from risk-driven to liquidity-driven, with personal investors benefiting the most from indices like the North Securities 50 and micro-cap stocks as tariff easing is fully priced in [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Economic pressures are emerging, and the difficulty of U.S. interest rate cuts is increasing. The market has fully priced in expectations of tariff war easing, and the recovery of growth sectors driven by rising risk appetite is nearing its end. The lowest point of the current export chain's price increase was on April 9, with an acceleration phase starting in late April. The current pressure comes from rising U.S. inflation, which, alongside tariff-related disturbances, is expected to exert upward pressure on inflation into the second quarter of 2025 due to rising housing prices and manufacturing recovery [2]. Participant Structure Changes - There is a notable return of speculative funds, regaining pricing power as implicit risks like tariffs have materialized. In mid to late May, the market will shift from risk appetite improvement to liquidity-driven dynamics. Monitoring models indicate that speculative trading began to bottom out in late April, with significant non-linear characteristics observed in market capitalization, where large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite and micro-cap stocks are leading gains, while mid-cap indices are lagging [3]. Financial Sector Outlook - The financial sector, which has been long undervalued, is expected to see a recovery. Public fund positions in the consumer sector have increased from 11.46% to 15.65% since the lowest point on March 4. However, their holdings in the financial sector remain low at 5.57%, with banks at 3.31% and non-banks at 1.75%. Despite this, the public fund regulations limit significant reductions in the already underweighted financial sector. The financial sector is favored by the market due to its valuation gap, and various factors are expected to contribute to its recovery, which will likely exhibit a stepwise characteristic [4].