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龙源电力(00916.HK):风况不佳拖累业绩 关注全面入市下的建设拐点
Ge Long Hui·2025-05-18 17:55

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 8.14 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.92% in continuing operations, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased by 21.82% compared to the previous year, primarily due to poor wind resource levels in certain regions [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in absolute revenue is attributed to the divestiture of two thermal power companies; however, after adjustments, revenue showed positive growth, with wind and solar power revenues reaching 7.368 billion yuan and 715 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.89% and +43.09% [2]. - The company's total power generation for Q1 was 20.3 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year, but an 8.81% increase when excluding the impact of thermal power [2]. - Wind power generation increased by 4.37%, while solar power generation surged by 55.65% [2]. Installed Capacity and Efficiency - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total installed capacity of 41.15 million kW, with wind power capacity at 30.44 million kW (up 10% year-on-year) and solar power capacity at 10.7 million kW (up 65% year-on-year) [2]. - The increase in wind and solar installed capacity outpaced the growth in power generation, primarily due to a decline in wind resource levels in certain large-capacity areas [2]. - The wind power utilization hours for Q1 were 585 hours, a decrease of 55 hours year-on-year; however, adjusting for this, the wind power generation could have reached 19.45 billion kWh, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [2]. Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The company has transitioned to a pure renewable energy company, having divested all thermal power assets, and is expected to benefit from the injection of approximately 40 GW of unlisted renewable assets from its parent company [2]. - Recent regulatory changes from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are expected to promote rational development in the renewable energy sector, enhancing market competition and addressing renewable energy consumption issues [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 6.794 billion yuan, 7.202 billion yuan, and 7.756 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.5, 7.1, and 6.6 times [2].