摩根大通：穆迪下调评级将推高美国利息成本

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. rating is expected to increase interest costs in the long term, leading to a decrease in U.S. Treasury prices relative to the overnight index swap (OIS) for matching maturities [1] Group 1: Impact on Interest Rates - The downgrade by Moody's is anticipated to raise interest expenditures, which will affect the pricing of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The report indicates that under similar conditions, the downgrade is likely to narrow the 30-year swap spread by approximately 5 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The current demand structure has undergone a significant change, and there is uncertainty in trade and monetary policy, leading to a bearish tilt in the short term [1] - The volatility resulting from this event is expected to be less severe than the fluctuations observed after the tariff announcement in early April, as investor positions are now more neutral [1] - U.S. Treasuries are showing a higher risk premium compared to other similarly rated developed market sovereign bonds, suggesting that the price decline may be smaller than indicated by the coefficients [1]