J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 26 November 2025 Global Inflation Outlook 2026 Inflation breakeven divergence Rates Strategy Francis Diamond AC (44-20) 7134-1504 francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Frida Infante (33 1) 8703 2581 frida.infante@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Phoebe White (1-212) 834-3092 phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230 liam.wash@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Takafumi Yamawaki (81-3) 6736-1748 ta ...

12月1日，临近年末，华尔街开始出现对2026年美国股市最大胆的预测，其中最乐观的就是，随着人工 智能（AI）热潮继续重塑经济和金融市场，标准普尔500指数将飙升至8000点。 这是迄今为止，对明年美股走势最乐观的预测。其他乐观预期还有：汇丰银行（HSBC）将2026年的目 标点位定为7500点，而摩根大通（JPMorgan）则预计，如果美联储继续降息，标准普尔500指数将涨 至7500点，上行空间为8000点。 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）也预计这将是强劲的一年，预计该指数将在2026年以7800点收盘。该行 首席美国股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）称之为"新牛市"。他在最新报告中指出，今年早 些时候，一轮持续的衰退已经结束，政策支持和盈利强劲将持续到明年。 机遇和风险 目前来看，更多的华尔街大行都倾向于认为下一阶段的牛市仍有上行空间。 富国银行（Wells Fargo）也属于这一阵营，预计未来12个月股市将出现两位数的上涨，2026年底的目标 点位为7800点。该行预计明年股市将经历两个阶段的上涨行情：上半年市场受"通胀预期"驱动，下半年 则由人工智能驱动的强劲上涨推 ...

OPEC+ will stick with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter, delegates said, amid growing signs of a surplus in global oil markets.Key members led by Saudi Arabia confirmed the three-month supply pause — first announced at the start of this month — during a video conference on Sunday, according to the delegates, who asked not to be identified as the talks are private.While the hiatus indicates some caution by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners after ...

摩根大通近日再度更新对美联储货币政策的预测，该行经济学家现在预计美联储将在今年十二月的会议上启动降息。这已经是该行在一周之内第二次调整对 美联储降息时点的判断。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利带领的研究团队表示，美联储官员近期支持降息的表态促使他们重新评估政策前景。特别值得注意的是纽约联邦 储备银行主席约翰·威廉姆斯近期的公开评论，这些言论显示出美联储内部对宽松货币政策的支持态度正在增强。 根据最新预测，摩根大通现在认为美联储不仅会在十二采取降息行动，还将在明年一月继续实施同样幅度的降息，两次降息各为二十五个基点。费罗利在致 客户的研究报告中写道，尽管下次会议的结果仍然存在不确定性，但美联储官员最新的表态已经明显提高了在两周后会议上决定降息的可能性。 这一预测转变发生在美国公布九月非农就业数据之后。当时由于就业人数意外大幅增加，摩根大通曾暂时放弃对十二月降息的预期，将首次降息时点推迟至 明年一月。然而威廉姆斯主席随后表态称美联储仍可在"短期内"降息而不会危及通胀目标，这一言论迅速改变了市场预期。 摩根大通的新观点与金融市场的最新动向不谋而合。目前利率掉期交易数据显示，市场认为美联储在十二月会议上降息二 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 16.4%[6] - The Nasdaq 100 index reached 25,435, with a weekly rise of 4.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.2% this week, with a year-to-date growth of 12.2%[6] Sector Analysis - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a significant weekly increase of 9.3% and a year-to-date increase of 9.9%[9] - The information technology sector reported a weekly rise of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 32.8%[9] - The healthcare sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[9] Fund Flows - The energy sector recorded a net inflow of $48 million this week, with a total of $572 million over the past 52 weeks[11] - The materials sector faced a net outflow of $290 million this week, totaling a negative $3.344 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] - The financial sector had a net inflow of $2.106 billion this week, with a total outflow of $6.723 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS adjustment for the energy sector was 0.3% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of -7.4%[14] - The materials sector saw an EPS adjustment of 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 4.9%[14] - The information technology sector's EPS adjustment was 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 28.0%[14]

A Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) survey of more than 900 institutional investors found strong optimism for gold, with 36% predicting prices could top $5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.According to a survey conducted on Goldman Sachs’ Marquee platform from November 12–14, over 70% of institutional investors expect gold prices to rise further in the upcoming year, according to CNBC.Key DriversFiscal concerns were cited by 27% of survey participants as the main driver of gold purchases, while 38% cited central ...

11月28日（周五），摩根大通（JP Morgan）周五在一份报告中称，预计2026年一季度铜价将升至 12,000美元/吨，预计2026年全年均价料为12,075美元/吨。 该报告预计2026年铝均价为2,675美元/吨。 该报告还表示，"在持续强劲的需求、官方储备积累和投资者多样化的支持下，金价料升至5,000美元/盎 司。" 报告还预计白银价格将随黄金一起上涨，可能升至85美元/盎司。 （文华综合 ） ...

高盛交易部门指出，尽管标普500指数11月以基本持平收官，但随着波动性回落、股市广度改善以及趋势跟随策略转为买方，前 路已显得更为清晰。高盛资深交易员Lee Coppersmith在一份报告中表示，以标普指数成份股涨跌家数五日均值来衡量的市场广 度，本月早些时候一度暴跌至-150，显示出"表面之下出现了相当严重的损伤"，而在感恩节前夕，该指标已反弹回到+150附近。 Lee Coppersmith表示："这是一个重大转变——市场参与度更加广泛，而不仅仅是狭窄的挤压行情，同时也进一步表明市场在本 月中旬已经释放了相当一部分压力。"高盛的"波动恐慌指数"也呈现出相似态势。该指数目前处于5附近，略高于其三年平均值， 并远低于11月初的高点。 与此同时，所谓系统性策略的仓位也已经重置。高盛交易员估算，过去一个月约有160亿美元与标普500指数相关的抛盘，这些交 易加剧了股市此前的下跌。在这一轮去风险过程基本被市场消化后，该行对下个月的基准情形预期转为小幅净买入，规模约为47 亿美元。Lee Coppersmith表示："这意味着，与几周前相比，我们进入12月有着更为干净的起点。" 美股在上周经历震荡之后于本周回暖，三 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in foreign investment attitudes towards Chinese technology stocks is observed, with major investment banks expressing bullish outlooks for the sector and foreign limited partners accelerating their return to China's primary market, focusing on technology investments [1][2][6]. Group 1: Positive Outlook from Foreign Institutions - UBS sets a target for the Hang Seng Tech Index at 7100 points for the end of 2026, indicating a nearly 27% upside from the closing price of 5599 points on November 28 [2]. - Morgan Stanley raises its target for the CSI 300 Index to 4840 points by December 2026, suggesting moderate growth potential amid stable valuations [3]. - JPMorgan upgrades its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," anticipating a higher likelihood of significant gains in the coming year due to AI proliferation and consumption stimulus [3]. Group 2: Increased Foreign Capital Inflow - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the total of $11.4 billion for 2024, marking over a threefold increase [4]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for foreign investment, with foreign holdings in the electronics sector increasing, reaching a market value of 391.5 billion yuan by September 30, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Investment Focus - Foreign institutions are primarily focusing on structural investments in sectors such as semiconductors, AI applications, and communication equipment [4][6]. - AI emerges as a central theme for foreign investment strategies, with firms like Lisi Capital and Source Code Capital establishing funds specifically targeting early-stage AI projects [7]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - The shift in foreign investment sentiment towards Chinese technology stocks is viewed as a long-term strategic reassessment rather than a short-term tactical play, driven by significant advancements in technology innovation [6][8]. - Experts believe that as China's economy continues to recover and innovation accelerates, the trend of increasing foreign allocation to Chinese technology stocks is likely to persist, positioning the tech sector as a crucial market focus [8].

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed higher on Friday, November 28, 2025, gaining 289.30 (0.61%) points in a shortened Black Friday trading session. Dow Futures (YM=F) also reflected positive sentiment, rising 253.00 (0.5327%). The primary narrative driving the market today was strong optimism surrounding the Black Friday shopping period and the broader holiday retail season, signaling robust consumer spending expectations. This positive outlook propelled a broad range of sectors, particularly tho ...