智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通近日发布关于本周美联储决议的前瞻研报。本周二召开的联邦公开市场委 员会(FOMC)会议料将是一场毫无悬念的轻松决策，这对委员会而言将是令人欣慰的变化。该行及几乎 所有市场参与者均预计，政策利率将维持不变。 市场预计联邦基金利率目标区间仍为3.5%-3.75%。美联储理事米兰可能会为了争取进一步宽松政策而再 次投反对票，美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒也存在投反对票的可能性。 小摩称，本次会议不会发布新的利率点阵图或经济预测，会后声明的修改也不太可能释放实质性的政策 信号。在新闻发布会上，该行预计鲍威尔将表示，当前政策已做好充分准备，能够应对美联储双重使命 面临的各类风险，且该行认为他将避免讨论与美联储相关的各类政治问题。 上周发表讲话时，鲍曼表示她大概率会支持本周降息，但同时也留出了回旋余地——若有充分证据表明 经济形势已发生变化，她也可能支持暂停降息。特朗普上周称下任美联储主席将是"一位男性"，这一言 论排除了鲍曼出任主席的可能性。 沃勒近期未发表公开言论，12月中旬时他曾表态支持进一步降息，但也强调"无需急于大幅降息"。尽管 自他上次公开讲话以来，失业率已回落至4.4%，沃勒仍持续对劳动力 ...

在1月23日发布的最新一期《Metals Weekly》中，摩根大通大宗商品研究团队——由Gregory Shearer牵头——给出的判断并不乐观：铜价仍然站在 高位，但支撑它的基本面正在明显走弱。 据追风交易台消息，研报开宗明义地指出，年初以来铜价之所以还能维持在约1.3万美元/吨附近，更多是靠宏观资金与情绪托举，而不是现货供 需的改善。随着中国和海外市场的库存同步回升，这种"价格跑在基本面前面"的状态正变得越来越难以维持。 中国精炼铜产量创新高，库存反季节激增 研报将最重的笔墨放在了中国。 从供给端看，情况并不紧张。2024年12月，中国精炼铜产量约118万吨，同比增7.5%，废铜进口的回升为冶炼厂提供了额外原料。但问题出在下 游。 下游订单偏弱 采购行为明显转向"按需为主" 阴极铜线杆开工率跌破50% 春节前后：数据会"失真"，只能盯库存 研报对接下来一个多月的判断相当克制。 春节在2月17日，意味着中国宏观与产业数据将进入"半失明"状态。摩根大通明确提示，春节前后很难得到一个"干净"的需求读数，市场只能通过 库存变化来间接判断。 研报描述的不是"断崖式下滑"，而是一种更微妙、也更麻烦的状态： 结果是一 ...

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has completed the acquisition of WealthOS, a technology platform specializing in pensions and wealth management solutions. This deal underscores the banking provider’s ongoing commitment to enhancing its digital offerings in an increasingly competitive financial landscape. WealthOS, known for its cloud-based tools that streamline middle- and back-office operations for wealth managers, represents a key addition to JPMorgan’s portfolio as it pushes deeper into pension-related service ...

正式告别"免费午餐"时代，OpenAI终于按下了广告变现的按钮。摩根大通认为，随着ChatGPT宣布将在未来几周内开始测试广告，这家AI 巨头正式迈出了从单纯依赖订阅模式向多元化商业变现转型的关键一步。 1月24日，摩根大通在最新研报中称，1月16日，OpenAI宣布将在未来几周内开始在ChatGPT的免费版和Go版本（轻量级订阅版）中测试 广告，这标志着其变现策略发生了实质性转变。 研报称，这一转向并非偶然——面对接近10亿的周活跃用户中95%为免费用户的现状，以及未来八年高达1.4万亿美元的基础设施投入承 诺，广告收入已从可选项变为商业必需。 摩根大通分析指出，ChatGPT的广告模式将有别于传统社交平台的"注意力经济"，转而通过捕捉用户的高商业意图来获取更高的千次展 示费用（eCPM）。目前ChatGPT约12%的查询具有搜索性质，且用户购买意向强烈。 该行认为，这一策略不仅旨在开辟新的收入流，更意在构建一个涵盖免费、Go（8美元/月）、Plus（20美元/月）及Pro（200美元/月）的 清晰价值阶梯，通过广告体验倒逼用户向付费层级转化。 同时，摩根大通认为，作为首个在消费级应用中测试广告的主流大语言 ...

Group 1 - China Aluminum International (02068) saw a mid-day increase of over 2.4% after announcing a joint venture to undertake a new electrolytic aluminum project with an annual capacity of 394,000 tons, with the first phase set at 294,000 tons [1] - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8.3% following the submission of a preliminary prospectus for a trust that plans to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months, with annual uranium procurement not exceeding 9 million pounds [1] - China Shengmu Organic Milk (01432) increased nearly 6% after a joint announcement regarding a potential conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of the company [1] Group 2 - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) surged over 18%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% since its resumption of trading in December, following the sale of shares by its controlling shareholder [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 10%, reaching a historical high of 5.49 HKD, after announcing the termination of its gold spin-off plan to focus on gold business [2] - Laopuqin Gold (06181) increased over 7.3% as consumer demand is expected to rise during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by higher gold prices and anticipated price increases [2] Group 3 - Oil stocks continued to rise, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.19%, Sinopec (00386) up 2.54%, and PetroChina (00857) up 3.68%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a rise of over 15.4% due to significant price increases and supply tightness in the G.652.D optical fiber market, with major manufacturers unable to meet their own orders [3] Group 4 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased over 2.6% after announcing plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026, with an investment of $437 million [4] - Xindong Company (02400) saw a slight increase of 0.43% as its mobile game "Xindong Town" surpassed 10 million downloads, indicating strong user growth [4] Group 5 - EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US) debuted on the US stock market with an IPO price of $24.5, closing up 32.9% on its first day [5] - The solar energy sector saw initial gains, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) up 9.03% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) up 4.57%, following discussions at the Davos Forum [5] - Silver-related stocks experienced gains, with First Majestic Silver (AG.US) rising 5.04% as spot silver prices surpassed $100 [5] Group 6 - Lithium mining stocks mostly rose, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 17.54% after announcing additional sales of high-purity lithium powder [6] - Bank stocks declined, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) down 3.75% amid legal issues involving President Trump and JPMorgan [6] - Redwire (RDW.US) increased by 4.51% following comments from Elon Musk about SpaceX's plans for reusable rocket technology [6] Group 7 - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, with AMD (AMD.US) up 2.35% and Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 1.53%, as Nvidia's CEO visited China to discuss future plans [7] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) rose 8.87% after reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITA reaching 12.7 billion SEK, a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 17.03% due to disappointing performance outlooks and manufacturing issues [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Economic Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's economic outlook as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in 2026, emphasizing growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" growth for 2026 and "at least 4.5%" for the remainder of the 15th FYP period, with an anticipated real growth of 4.7% in 2026 amid ongoing deflation [4][6][18]. 2. High-End Manufacturing - The 15th FYP emphasizes advanced manufacturing and AI development, with progress noted in green technology and heavy industry. However, technological gaps remain, particularly in high-tech sectors [4][29][30]. 3. Export Dynamics - Nominal export growth is projected to slow to approximately 3.4% in 2026, with net exports contributing about 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth. Rising trade barriers and stricter enforcement are significant challenges, although China's cost advantage supports exports [4][70][54]. 4. Fiscal Policy and Consumption Support - The central government's budget deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) at approximately 11%. Fiscal support for consumption is expected to increase modestly to about 0.5% of GDP, focusing on subsidies for various sectors [4][9][80]. 5. Deflation and Economic Adjustments - CPI is expected to average 0.7% in 2026, with persistent PPI deflation due to excess supply. A shift in policy support towards consumption and services is necessary for durable reflation [4][10][6]. 6. Housing Market Correction - The housing correction is likely to continue without decisive measures to stabilize prices or stimulate demand. A comprehensive approach is needed to address the ongoing downturn in housing activity [4][11][78]. 7. Currency Appreciation - Modest, managed appreciation of the CNY is expected, influenced by a high current account surplus and capital outflows. Claims of undervaluation are considered overstated, with competitiveness driven more by efficiency and deflation [4][12][69]. 8. AI Adoption and Technological Development - China's AI+ initiative aims for broad integration across industries, focusing on mature-node silicon and advanced packaging. However, productivity gains depend on effective workflow integration and governance to manage labor market disruptions [4][13][46]. 9. Geopolitical Landscape - Elevated geopolitical risks characterize the start of 2026, with potential shifts in regional relationships. The response from China has been muted, but changes in ties with neighboring economies are anticipated [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by Western tech export controls and the need for China to enhance its self-sufficiency in critical technologies. The ongoing geopolitical tensions may further complicate China's economic landscape [4][50][68]. - The report also notes the importance of balancing fiscal support between consumption and investment, as weak income gains and high savings rates hinder consumer spending [4][83][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding China's economic outlook for 2026, providing insights into growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations.

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 22 January 2026 Japan Equity Strategy To what extent can Japanese equities withstand rising rates and JPY depreciation? With a snap general election on Feb 8 approaching, pledges by the ruling and opposition parties to cut consumption taxes on food, among other measures, have heightened concerns about further fiscal expansion and the possibility that higher long-term rates could trigger selling in Japanese equities. Since Takaichi's victory in the LDP presidential ele ...

美国总统特朗普对摩根大通及其首席执行官杰米·戴蒙提起的诉讼，凸显了政府针对华尔街的政策议程 中日益加剧且政治敏感的冲突——大型银行在获益的同时也面临挫折。 这是特朗普迄今对华尔街采取的最直接对抗行动。他于周四提起50亿美元诉讼，指控美国最大银行及其 CEO基于政治原因关闭了他本人及其多家公司的账户。特朗普长期声称华尔街银行试图边缘化他和其他 保守派人士，摩根大通等银行对此指控予以否认。 此举表明，那些本被视为特朗普全面放松监管议程主要受益者的大型金融机构，正日益身处不可预测且 时而充满敌意的政策环境中。这种环境可能损害其声誉、潜在影响业务，并迫使其重新考虑在华盛顿的 游说策略。 哥伦比亚大学高级研究员托德·贝克表示："该行业在重大议题上胜负参半，持续的压力和事态发展的随 意性正在造成损害。" 此次诉讼之前，特朗普曾威胁将消费者信用卡利率上限设定为10%——戴蒙警告该提议将是"经济灾 难"。与此同时，特朗普政府的监管机构正采取措施，让金融科技公司、加密货币企业及部分公司更易 与传统银行直接竞争。 美国总统特朗普对摩根大通及其首席执行官杰米·戴蒙提起的诉讼，凸显了政府针对华尔街的政策议程 中日益加剧且政治敏感的冲 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月25日电（张天源）在美联储持续降息、借贷成本下降的背景下，美国华尔街大型银行正密集启动债券融资计划。业内人士指出，受人工智 能（AI）投资相关的融资需求推动，2026年美国公司债券市场将迎来新一轮发行潮，全年发行总量预计将达到约2.5万亿美元，但巨额融资也引发了市场对 于债务可持续性的担忧。 华尔街大行密集发债 近期，华尔街多家大型银行密集启动债券融资计划。其中，摩根大通宣布发行60亿美元债券，富国银行宣布发行80亿美元债券。摩根士丹利通过发行债券超 额筹资80亿美元。高盛集团通过发行投资级债券募资160亿美元，这是华尔街银行有史以来规模最大的该类债券发行。据中经社企业外债风险监测系统显 示，仅今年1月华尔街大行就将有逾350亿美元的新债涌入市场。 华尔街六大银行通常指美国六家最具重要性的综合性商业银行与投行集团，分别是摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行、高盛集团和摩根士丹利。 2025年，这六大银行通过派息和股票回购向股东返还资本超1400亿美元，创历史新高，远超2019年的峰值水平。 业内人士表示，华尔街大行资本返还规模激增，既源于银行利润飙升，也得益于监管政策放松，让 ...

据中经社企业外债风险监测系统显示，本轮华尔街发债潮中，发行规模最大的高盛集团此次发行的债券 分为六档，期限跨度从3年至21年不等，既能满足短期流动性补充需求，也能锁定长期稳定资金，兼顾 灵活性与确定性。盈透证券最新研报指出，这种多期限搭配的策略，既能吸引追求稳健收益的短期投资 者，也能打动保险公司、养老基金等长期配置型机构，为债券顺利发行提供保障。 在美联储持续降息、借贷成本下降的背景下，美国华尔街大型银行正密集启动债券融资计划。业内人士 指出，受人工智能（AI）投资相关的融资需求推动，2026年美国公司债券市场将迎来新一轮发行潮， 全年发行总量预计将达到约2.5万亿美元，但巨额融资也引发了市场对于债务可持续性的担忧。 华尔街大行密集发债 据多家投行及信用评级机构披露，华尔街六大银行在近期公布2025年第四季度财报后迅速启动了债券融 资计划。巴克莱银行最新预测显示，2026年这六家银行在全球范围内发行的高评级债券总额或将达到 1880亿美元，同比增长约7%。 华尔街六大银行通常指美国六家最具重要性的综合性商业银行与投行集团，分别是摩根大通、美国银 行、花旗集团、富国银行、高盛集团和摩根士丹利。2025年，这六 ...