2025年6月23日星期一 ➢ 美军突袭伊朗核设施；联储理事料最 快7月降息。A股持续收低。上证指数 收盘跌0.07%报3359.9点，深证成指跌 0.47%，创业板指跌0.83%。脑机接口 概念回落。港股下跌。恒生指数收盘 涨1.26%报23530.48点，恒生科技指数 涨0.88%，恒生中国企业指数涨1.38%。 大金融强势，油气股放缓。大盘成交 额2224.23亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三 大股指收盘涨跌不一。美国三大股指 收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.08%，标普 500指数跌0.22%报5967.84点，纳指跌 0.51%。美军周末突袭伊朗三处核设施， 德黑兰誓言保留一切反击选项。特朗 普再次威胁解雇鲍威尔，美联储理事 Waller预计最快可在7月降息。 资料来源：彭博 | 23530.48 | 1.26 | 17.30 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8527.07 | 1.38 | 16.97 | | 5133.14 | 0.88 | 14.88 | | 130.57 | -0.74 | -8.69 | | 3359.90 | -0.07 | 0.24 | | 10005.03 | -0. ...

Jin Tik Ngai, CFA (65) 6807 5556 jintik.ngai@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch Sajjid Z Chinoy (91-22) 6157-3386 sajjid.z.chinoy@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Mumbai Branch Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N 20 June 2025 Asia: The implications of higher oil prices Crude prices have risen by over 15% (from US ~$65pbl to US ~$75pbl) over the last two weeks on account of fears, subsequently realized, of conflict between Israel and Iran. According to our commodities ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to face significant turmoil, with the Federal Reserve likely to intervene only when panic sets in, indicating a potential crisis rather than a minor disturbance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, anticipates a major deleveraging moment in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is being undermined [2][4]. - The ongoing trade war initiated by Trump has led to unusual market behaviors, such as simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating a shift in risk management strategies among investors [4][6]. - The liquidity in the Treasury market remains tight, with the Federal Reserve reducing capital buffers to allow market makers to handle more Treasuries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impact - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have not prompted the expected influx of safe-haven investments into U.S. Treasuries, which traditionally would occur during geopolitical crises [5][8]. - The dollar's initial reaction to the airstrikes was a decline, which is atypical for a safe-haven asset, further indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries [6][8]. - The performance of gold and oil has surged, while Treasuries and the dollar have not attracted safe-haven flows, suggesting a significant shift in market perception [5][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. fiscal management is described as "disastrous," with unrealistic tax and spending policies that could lead to a weaker economic outlook [9]. - A global debt crisis is looming, with long-term bond auctions in developed countries facing issues, driven by unsustainable fiscal policies and declining demand from traditional buyers [10]. - The transition of long-term Treasury purchases from traditional buyers to highly leveraged hedge funds raises the likelihood of a significant crisis in the Treasury market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin Innovation Act," marking a significant shift for stablecoins from a "gray area" to "compliance operation," which has triggered a surge in the capital market, particularly for Circle's stock, which rose over 675% in just over ten days [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact and Predictions - Circle's stock price skyrocketed from $31 to $240 following the legislative approval, indicating strong market enthusiasm for stablecoins [2]. - Citi's report predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030 under optimistic scenarios, driven by regulatory support and widespread institutional adoption [2][12]. Group 2: Retail Giants' Interest - Retail giants like Amazon and Walmart are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to address high payment processing fees, which can amount to billions annually [4][5]. - Amazon's e-commerce revenue is projected to reach $447.5 billion in 2024, while Walmart's is expected to be $120.9 billion, highlighting the significant financial incentive for these companies to adopt stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Cost Savings and Efficiency - Current payment systems impose transaction fees of 1.5% to 3%, leading to potential annual costs of $6.7 billion to $13.4 billion for Amazon and $1.8 billion to $3.6 billion for Walmart [6]. - Transitioning to stablecoin payments could reduce transaction costs to around 0.1%, allowing these retailers to save billions annually [6]. Group 4: Data Control and Customer Insights - By issuing their own stablecoins, companies like Amazon can gain better control over user data, enhancing their ability to analyze consumer behavior and optimize marketing strategies [7]. - Walmart's patent application in 2019 indicated plans to use blockchain to record consumer habits, potentially offering discounts to enhance customer loyalty [7]. Group 5: Traditional Financial Institutions' Response - Traditional banks face potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion due to the rise of stablecoins, which could weaken their ability to attract deposits and extend credit [8][9]. - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, are exploring joint stablecoin issuance to maintain relevance in the evolving financial landscape [9]. Group 6: Payment Giants' Adaptation - Visa has begun investing in stablecoin startups and forming partnerships to facilitate stablecoin use in cross-border payments, indicating a proactive approach to the emerging competition [10][11]. - The banking sector is also looking to issue their own stablecoins to retain customer relationships and transaction flows, rather than ceding control to third-party issuers [12]. Group 7: Challenges Facing Stablecoins - Analysts express skepticism about the immediate impact of stablecoins on traditional payment systems, citing consumer acceptance as a critical barrier [14]. - Current stablecoins are predominantly dollar-denominated, limiting their effectiveness in local currency transactions and posing liquidity challenges [14]. - The lack of effective fraud prevention mechanisms in stablecoin transactions raises concerns about consumer confidence, as completed transactions are irreversible [14][15].

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase is set to launch a new tool on Friday that allows investors to research and purchase bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs) through its mobile application [1] - Users will be able to set up custom screens within the same banking app or website used for checking balances, enabling them to compare bond yields [1] - This initiative aims to enhance the bank's credibility among investors who trade a few times each month [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of June 20, 2025, the soybean oil futures market shows a mixed trend with a slight increase in the main contract price, while trading volume and positions indicate a net short position among the top 20 participants [1]. Trading Data - The main soybean oil contract closed at a price increase of 0.44%, with a trading volume of 374,500 contracts, and a total of 429,000 contracts traded across all contracts, which is a decrease of 96,100 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions show a total long position of 573,500 contracts, an increase of 8,331 contracts, while the total short position is 628,400 contracts, an increase of 6,809 contracts [1]. Major Participants - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total position of 85,324 contracts, CITIC Futures with 51,109 contracts, and JPMorgan with 41,745 contracts [1]. - The top three short positions are held by COFCO Futures with 147,831 contracts, Guotai Junan with 45,898 contracts, and Guotai Futures with 83,711 contracts [1]. Position Changes - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increase in long positions was seen in QianKun Futures with an increase of 5,271 contracts, followed by Dongzheng Futures with an increase of 4,747 contracts, and CITIC Futures with an increase of 1,349 contracts [1]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by CITIC Jiantou with a reduction of 3,300 contracts, followed by Guotai Futures with a decrease of 1,948 contracts, and Yide Futures with a decrease of 1,124 contracts [1]. - For short positions, COFCO Futures saw the largest increase with 2,933 contracts, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease with 2,005 contracts [1].

Group 1 - Citigroup analysts indicated that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, leading to a daily reduction of 1.1 million barrels in Iranian oil exports, Brent crude prices could rise by 15%-20% from pre-conflict levels, corresponding to a price range of $75-$78 per barrel [1] - If Iranian oil exports are interrupted by 3 million barrels per day for several months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel [1] - JPMorgan warned that if the conflict escalates to include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could soar to $120-$130 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Since 1979, there have been eight significant regime changes in oil-producing countries, with oil prices rising by an average of 30% and peaking at a 76% increase [2] - Barclays stated that if Iranian exports are halved, oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel, and in the worst-case scenario of a full-scale conflict, prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2] - Iran, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, currently has a daily crude oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve should be tempered, as rates are likely to remain unchanged until the end of the year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, indicates that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates through the end of this year [1] - There is an expectation that inflation could rise due to tariffs, potentially leading to a decrease in inflation only by 2026 [1] - **Economic Projections** - It is anticipated that by the end of next year, the economy will cool down, and inflation may also decrease, which could lead to lower interest rates in the future [1] - **Current Federal Reserve Stance** - The current sentiment is that there is no immediate intention from the Federal Reserve to provide lower interest rates, suggesting that investors should not hold their breath for such changes [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on copper prices, forecasting a decline towards $9,100/mt in Q3 2025 before stabilizing around $9,350/mt in Q4 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The tightening of copper fundamentals in 1H25 is attributed to two main factors: increased US imports ahead of potential tariffs and front-loaded demand from China [2][4]. - The report anticipates a payback in 2H25 from these dynamics, leading to a more cautious stance on copper prices for the remainder of the year [2][4]. - Visible copper inventory is described as significantly dislocated and imbalanced, rather than exceptionally tight globally [2][5]. - The US is projected to import approximately 430 kmt of excess refined copper in 1H25, which is expected to lead to a substantial inventory build [2][11]. - The report expects a multi-month de-stocking cycle in the US following the announcement of copper tariffs, which will shift supply dynamics towards Asia [2][13]. - Chinese copper demand growth has been robust at around 7% year-on-year, but is expected to slow in 2H25 due to various headwinds [2][14]. - The report highlights a potential decline in demand from the air conditioning and white goods sectors, as well as a significant slump in solar demand, which could lead to flat or slightly negative overall demand growth in China for 2H25 [2][19][24]. - Despite the anticipated unwind of tightening factors, overall copper supply growth remains constrained, supporting prices above $9,000/mt [2][25]. Summary by Sections US Copper Imports and Tariffs - The report expects a 25% tariff on US imports of refined copper and copper products to be announced by the end of July 2025 [2][27]. - Following the tariff announcement, US imports are expected to drop significantly, leading to a shift in trade flows towards Asia [2][36]. Chinese Demand Dynamics - Chinese copper demand growth is projected to be around 3% for the full year 2025, with a significant slowdown expected in 2H25 [2][14]. - The report notes that while grid demand will remain strong, other sectors such as housing and solar are likely to face challenges [2][19][24]. Price Forecasts - The report provides a quarterly price forecast for copper, estimating $9,100/mt for Q3 2025 and $9,350/mt for Q4 2025 [2][49]. - Overall, the report suggests that absent a severe downturn in the macroeconomic environment, copper prices will remain supported despite the anticipated corrections [2][25].

香港交易所信息显示，摩根大通(JPMorgan)在哔哩哔哩-W的持股比例于6月16日从12.79%升至13.04%， 平均股价为163.14港元。 ...