# 全球市场导读刊物 25.08.14 ⽬录 Contents （直达链接在⽂末） ⼀、美国银⾏ BofA：美国7⽉CPI通胀解析⸺能源与核⼼分项错配推动预测准确 性 1. 整体CPI与核⼼通胀表现 美国7⽉整体CPI同⽐增速受能源价格反弹推动⾼于预期，⽽核⼼CPI增速略低于市场⼀致预期。尽 管两者⽅向不同，但综合结果与预测较为吻合，凸显分项⾛势的相互抵消效应。 2. 能源价格反弹的作⽤ 能源价格特别是汽油价格在7⽉显著回升，是推动整体CPI超预期的主要因素。BofA认为，这⼀反 弹部分归因于原油价格上涨与炼⼚维护减少供应，短期内或仍有⼀定⽀撑。 3. 核⼼通胀温和回落 核⼼CPI的回落主要来⾃⼆⼿⻋价格下降、部分服务类通胀趋缓以及住房租⾦涨幅放缓。BofA指 出，这种趋势与美联储此前预期的核⼼通胀逐步降温路径⼀致。 • 美国银⾏ BofA：美国7⽉CPI通胀解析⸺能源与核⼼分项错配推动预测准确性 • 摩根⼤通 JPM：美国7⽉CPI数据温和，美联储关注点转向8⽉就业报告 • ⾼盛 GS：中国7⽉新增贷款净增⻓20年来⾸次为负，信贷需求疲弱与季节性因素叠加 • ⾼盛 GS：中国锂供给现状、未知因素与基本⾯展望 ...

| l | Miasory | | Shares Hald Act | | %.04 | R-2-81-8-2010 % of | Flank | Change in | 2 | 16 | Qt/ frat | Ext. Avg. | Gly Eral | | Port | Part | lande | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Sector | call Problems and | Market Vadue - | Pietradia | Pordolia | | Shares | Change | Ownership | Owned | Price | Price | Price 10 | MITD | YTD | | | MSFF | Hour | INFORMATION | 157,058,938 | 78.123.082.584 | 5.11% | 3.89% | | 15,048,970 | ...

每经AI快讯，8月15日，据13F文件披露，美国银行二季度增持博通、MetaPlatforms、摩根大通、领航 先锋成长ETF、亚马逊。减持苹果、百事等。重仓微软、英伟达、苹果、领航先锋价值ETF、领航先锋 成长ETF。 ...

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) . Shares have added about 1.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is JPMorgan Chase & Co. due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.JPMorgan's Q2 Earnings Beat o ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan's capital markets operations are a significant earnings driver, contributing approximately 40% of total net revenues [1] - The capital markets experienced a notable rebound in 2024 after a slowdown in 2022 and 2023, with JPMorgan's investment banking fees surging 36% year over year [2] - The bank maintained its leading position in global investment banking fees, highlighting its competitive strength [2] Investment Banking Performance - In the first half of 2025, JPMorgan captured an 8.9% investment banking wallet share, with continued growth expected in IB fees [3] - The recovery in deal-making is anticipated to provide a stable growth anchor for the Commercial & Investment Bank segment [3] Trading Performance - Trading revenues have historically been volatile, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and client risk appetite [4] - Increased geopolitical tensions and market volatility in 2025 have driven client hedging and trading needs, supporting revenue growth [4][11] - JPMorgan's broad product coverage positions it well to capitalize on volatility spikes [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also experienced a revival in investment banking performance, with Bank of America's IB fees increasing by 31% year over year in 2024 [6][8] - Morgan Stanley's trading business has performed well due to macroeconomic headwinds, although its IB performance has been subdued in 2025 [8][9] Financial Metrics - JPMorgan's CIB segment saw IB fees rise 36% in 2024 and market revenues grow 7% [11] - The bank trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book ratio of 2.98X, above the industry average [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 earnings implies a decline of 1.3% year over year, with a projected growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape among the world's most influential business leaders, highlighting the rise of artificial intelligence and the critical role of companies like Nvidia in shaping the future of technology and business [3][5][6]. Group 1: Nvidia and AI Leadership - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, is recognized as the most influential business leader, with Nvidia becoming the highest-valued company on the U.S. stock exchange due to the demand for its AI chips [3][6][7]. - The demand for Nvidia's chips is described as nearly infinite, with major tech companies building large data centers equipped with thousands of Nvidia GPUs [7]. - Nvidia's stock price has reached historic highs, making it the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion [7]. Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - The article emphasizes the intense competition among top business leaders, with many closely ranked, indicating a fierce battle for market dominance [4][5]. - The rankings reveal that even slight differences in position can signify significant competition, as seen with leaders from Amazon and Walmart, and Tesla and BYD [4]. - The historical context shows that past advantages can quickly become liabilities, with emerging startups posing threats to established giants [5][6]. Group 3: Transformations in Major Companies - Microsoft, under Satya Nadella, has successfully transitioned from personal computing to cloud services and now to AI, maintaining a market cap of over $3.7 trillion [9][10]. - Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, has pivoted towards generative AI, with projected revenues nearing $190 billion, despite facing social media-related challenges [12]. - Tesla's Elon Musk continues to innovate, with significant advancements in SpaceX and Neuralink, despite controversies affecting Tesla's brand image [14]. Group 4: Emerging Leaders and Market Trends - BYD, led by Wang Chuanfu, has become the largest seller of new energy vehicles, with sales exceeding 4 million units in 2024 [16]. - Alphabet's Sundar Pichai is navigating regulatory challenges while pushing for AI advancements within Google, which has a profit of $100 billion [17]. - OpenAI's Sam Altman has transformed the company into a $300 billion entity, leading the AI arms race against competitors like Meta and Google [21]. Group 5: Financial Sector Insights - Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase wields significant influence in the financial sector, with the bank reporting revenues of $279 billion in 2025 [24]. - Citigroup's Jane Fraser is restructuring the bank with a focus on technology modernization, achieving an 8% revenue growth [32]. - Accenture's Julie Sweet has positioned the company as a leader in generative AI, reporting $1.8 billion in AI-related revenue [30].

根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最新披露，近日，包括摩根大通、先锋集团、贝莱德等全球金融巨头纷纷披露2025年第二季度持仓报告（13F）。 13F报告显示，上述三大全球金融巨头均重仓科技巨头，并且均在第二季度加仓英伟达等科技公司。 从持仓变动情况看，今年第二季度，摩根大通对英伟达、微软等科技巨头进行增持。13F显示，第二季度，摩根大通买入力度最大的前五大标的为：英伟达、微 软、博通（AVGO）、SPDR标普500指数ETF看跌期权（SPY.US.PUT）和SPDR标普500指数ETF看涨期权（SPY.US.CALL）。 卖出力度最大的前五大标的包括：联合健康（UNH）、SPDR标普500指数ETF（SPY）、麦当劳（MCD）、伯克希尔哈撒韦（BRK.B）和万事达（MA）。 摩根大通最新持仓出炉 根据摩根大通8月12日提交的13F报告，截至2025年6月30日，其美股投资组合总市值达1.53万亿美元，较上季度增长11.7%。在其超7000只持仓标的中，前五大重 仓股均为科技企业。整体来看，该机构在第二季度新增了682只个股，增持了2614只个股，减持了3312只个股，清仓了939只个股。 从持仓结构来看，摩根大 ...

瑞银高级经济学家布莱恩·罗斯警告，核心通胀的下行趋势已被打破，企业转嫁成本的行为将推动物价 持续上行，所幸住房通胀放缓与消费紧缩能提供部分对冲。 市场关注的关键在于通胀传导的广度与深度。法国巴黎银行研究发现，价格上涨已突破商品领域，近期 服务业投入价格呈现明显上行压力。该行特别强调，美联储最担忧的不是通胀绝对水平，而是价格粘性 问题——7月核心服务价格意外强劲印证了这一忧虑。 新华财经北京8月14日电（崔凯）一场由研究报告引发的政商博弈正在华盛顿持续发酵。美国知名投行 高盛集团上周末发布的经济展望报告作出惊人论断——到今年年底，美国消费者将切身感受到关税政策 的全面冲击。这一结论迅速招致美国总统特朗普的强烈抨击，其在社交媒体公开喊话要求高盛CEO大卫 ·所罗门解雇涉事研究团队，否则就应引咎辞职。 面对政治压力，高盛首席经济学家戴维·梅里克勒周三受访时坚称维持原有判断，并强调该行并非孤 例，华尔街主要机构已形成对关税传导效应的高度共识。 据行业追踪显示，尽管7月美国CPI数据呈现温和态势提振市场情绪，但多数经济学家认为关税对通胀 的真实冲击尚未完全显现。摩根大通美国首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利指出，当前关税上调幅 ...

根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最新披露，近日，包括摩根大通、先锋集团、贝莱德等全球金融巨头纷 纷披露2025年第二季度持仓报告（13F）。 13F报告显示，上述三大全球金融巨头均重仓科技巨头，并且均在第二季度加仓英伟达等科技公司。 摩根大通最新持仓出炉 根据摩根大通8月12日提交的13F报告，截至2025年6月30日，其美股投资组合总市值达1.53万亿美元，较上季 度增长11.7%。在其超7000只持仓标的中，前五大重仓股均为科技企业。整体来看，该机构在第二季度新增了 682只个股，增持了2614只个股，减持了3312只个股，清仓了939只个股。 从持仓结构来看，摩根大通继续重仓科技巨头，前十大持仓标的占总市值的25.16%。 | Name | % of | | --- | --- | | | Portfolio | | MSFT Microsoft | 5.11% | | Corporatio | | | NVDA NVIDIA Corp | 4.78% | | AAPL Apple Inc | 2.88% | | AMZN Amazon.com | 2.77% | | Inc | | | META Me ...

Global Macro Research August 11th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM0CyzixwoI9MxXRybD2xIAGCd2PFhxdwMQ}]} Overall summary US Rates Hold 5s20s steepeners as low-beta way to position for lower front-end yields. We anticipate Treasury will begin a mu ...