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一份30年的报告告诉你:合理的投资预期长什么样
雪球· 2026-03-03 13:31
以下文章来源于府库 ,作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财,温暖幸福生活 我之前给自己的锚是GDP增长率——经济长期能增长多少,投资回报大致就在那个附近。但看到这份报告的时候,我意识到这个问题其实可以算 得更细:不同的资产、不同的配置结构,对应的合理预期是不一样的。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 府库 来源:雪球 最近在翻一份报告的时候,我被一个数字卡住了。 JP Morgan刚发了最新一版《长期资本市场假设》(Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions)。这份报告每年出一次,今年是第30版——128页, 100多位行业分析师和策略师,覆盖200多种资产、20种基础货币,基本上是全球资管行业里最大规模的一次"未来十年能赚多少"的集体推算。 结论是:一个全球60/40股债组合,未来10到15年的预期年化回报是6.4%。 6.4%是怎么来的 先说这个6.4%不是拍脑袋拍出来的。 所谓60/40,就是60%配全球股票(MSCI ACWI指数),40%配全球债券。这是全球机构投资者用了几十年 ...
JPMorgan, Citi shift to remote work in Middle East amid Iran conflict
Yahoo Finance· 2026-03-03 12:02
The bank has also put additional safety measures in place and is maintaining communication with clients as events unfold. In a statement to Retail Banker International, a spokesperson from Citi said: "The safety of our employees is our number one priority, and we are continuing to take measures to help keep our employees and their families safe. "JPMorgan, Citi shift to remote work in Middle East amid Iran conflict" was originally created and published by Retail Banker International, a GlobalData owned bran ...
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns there's too much complacency in markets
MarketWatch· 2026-03-03 10:04
JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warns the tepid stock-market reaction on Monday to the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran was just another example of the complacency in markets. ...
Oil rally builds as ‘staggering’ West Asia War jolts energy
BusinessLine· 2026-03-03 10:03
Oil extended gains as the US and Israel stepped up their war against Iran, while Tehran vowed a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and hit the American embassy in Riyadh with drones. Global benchmark Brent rose above $80 a barrel, after spiking about 7 per cent on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was near $73. President Donald Trump said the US would do "whatever it takes," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the military campaign was set to intensify. The US embassy in the Saudi capita ...
JPMorgan Urges Investors To 'Buy The Dip' Amid US-Iran War: Mohammed El-Erian, Gary Black Diverge On Long-Term Economic Impact - State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY)
Benzinga· 2026-03-03 08:09
As the U.S. and Israel transition into a sustained air campaign against Iran, Wall Street's top strategists are split on whether the resulting market volatility represents a generational buying opportunity or the beginning of a stagflationary crisis.The Case For ResilienceJPMorgan has advised clients to “buy the dip,” characterizing the escalation as a temporary disruption rather than a reason to exit equities.Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, echoed this optimism. Despite Brent crude’s jump, ...
Jamie Dimon Reacts To Coinbase CEO's Level Playing Field Pitch: 'If They Want To Be A Bank, So Be It' — But They Should Be Treated As One - Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)
Benzinga· 2026-03-03 07:43
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) , weighed in on the debate surrounding stablecoin rewards on Monday, insisting that any cryptocurrency firm offering should fall under banking regulations.‘If They Want To Be A Bank, So Be It’During an interview with CNBC, Dimon responded to a question about his reported disagreements with Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong over the rewards clause in the cryptocurrency market structure bill.Dimon said rewards are basically just interest ...
Jamie Dimon Sees Overlooked Risk to U.S. Amid War in Iran
Investopedia· 2026-03-03 01:00
Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the potential for retaliatory cyberattacks against banks due to U.S. military actions in Iran [1] - Dimon stated that unless the conflict leads to a prolonged disruption of oil trade, it is unlikely to cause a significant inflationary impact in the U.S. [1] - The warning from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Dimon indicated that the recent U.S. strikes on Iran could lead to short-term spikes in oil prices, but these are not expected to have a lasting effect on consumer prices if the situation is resolved quickly [1] - He noted that while there may be a temporary increase in gas prices, a prolonged conflict would be necessary for a major inflationary impact [1] - The conflict has already caused West Texas Intermediate futures to rise to an 8-month high, reflecting market concerns about oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Cybersecurity Concerns - Dimon emphasized that banks, including JPMorgan Chase, could be prime targets for cyberattacks as a form of retaliation [1] - He described the risk of cyberattacks as one of the highest risks faced by banks and mentioned the significant investments made in cybersecurity to mitigate these threats [1] - The potential for terrorist attacks, either domestically or globally, was also highlighted as a consequence of the ongoing conflict [1]
X @Wendy O
Wendy O· 2026-03-02 23:44
JPMorgan CEO claims banks want a level playing field with crypto firms under US regulation but want to continue to give RETAIL 0.03% yield and no yield on stablecoins.Super level playing field. https://t.co/3OwYXbfMJT ...
Jaime Dimon warns inflation could soar beyond expectations as US, Israeli strikes on Iran spark terror fears
New York Post· 2026-03-02 21:21
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday that inflation could shape up to be a “skunk in a party” following the US and Israeli air strikes on Iran over the weekend.Following the outbreak of conflict, in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, oil prices surged over fears of supply constraints and Wall Street’s volatility index jumped to its highest level so far this year.“There’s some risk there’s more inflation than people think, and that could be like a skunk at a party if that ...
Jamie Dimon says Trump's $5 billion debanking lawsuit ‘has no merit' but he's sympathetic to concerns
CNBC· 2026-03-02 21:04
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that while President Donald Trump's lawsuit seeking $5 billion in damages for shuttering his accounts was without merit, he sympathized with the president's anger over the episode.Trump is accusing JPMorgan and others of closing his accounts for political reasons in what his conservative supporters have called discrimination. "The case has no merit," Dimon told CNBC's Leslie Picker in an interview on the sidelines of a JPMorgan conference in Miami."But I agree with ...