"如果不能继续储存，就只能停产"，即使产油国生产出原油，如果不能向外运输，就只能储存在储油罐 中。但是，按照目前的情况，储罐被全部装满的时间是26天。即便利用经由红海等的替代路线进行运 输，也仅能弥补因封锁而减少的运输量的一半以下…… 霍尔木兹海峡的封锁正在威胁全球原油供应。即使利用经由红海等的替代路线进行运输，也仅能弥补因 封锁而减少的运输量的一半以下。有预测称，如果封锁今后持续一个月，无法完全运出去的原油将滞留 在产油国，各国将联袂被迫减产。加剧价格上涨的预期正越来越走向现实。 美国高盛在3月1日的报告中分析称："如果未来一个月不能利用管线的剩余运输能力，也无法释放储备 的话，油价将在一个月内上涨15美元"。报告认为即使满负荷运转剩余能力且每日释放200万桶左右的储 备，也有10美元左右的上涨空间。 原油储罐26天将被装满 高盛4日指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡运输量不恢复的状态持续逾一个月，"北海产布伦特原油价格很可能达 到每桶100美元"。英国施罗德也预测称："如果海峡航行限制持续4～5周左右，可能上涨至100～120美 元左右"。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队2日宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，全球约20%的石油消费量经由这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are experiencing significant short-term losses, but long-term investment cases remain strong according to several money managers [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI equity index recorded its largest weekly drop in six years, while bond yields have increased sharply [1][6]. - Investors added $12.6 billion to emerging-market stocks and bonds in the week through Wednesday, indicating a potential buying opportunity amid price dips [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Money managers from firms like Pacific Investment Management Co, Barings LLC, and T Rowe Price Group Inc are mostly holding off on major portfolio shifts, despite some marginal adjustments [1][6]. - The conviction in emerging markets is driven by diversification from US assets, attractive valuations, and solid economic growth, which many believe will reassert themselves once geopolitical tensions ease [2][6]. Group 3: Risks and Adjustments - Rising Brent crude prices, surpassing $90 a barrel, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East are raising concerns about economic growth in import-reliant countries [2][6]. - JPMorgan Chase & Co has reduced its recommendations on emerging-market assets three times in the past week, moving to tactical underweight positions on sovereign and corporate dollar bonds due to increased uncertainty [5][6].

There are countless ways for investors to make money on Wall Street, but few are as consistently successful as buying and holding high-quality dividend stocks. Based on a study by Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research ("The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and Future"), dividend stocks have more than doubled the annualized return of non-payers over more than half a century (1973-2024): 9.2% vs. 4.31%. While it's probably not a surprise that dividend stocks have a track record of outperf ...

Core Insights - The article discusses two next-generation income ETFs, DIVO and IDVO, which are outperforming JPMorgan's JEPI in 2026, highlighting their different strategies for income generation and performance metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - JEPI has delivered a cumulative return of 4.29% from January 2, 2026, to March 4, 2026, while the S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date [1]. - DIVO has outperformed JEPI with a cumulative total return of 5.22% over the same period [1]. - IDVO has achieved a year-to-date return of 6.92% through March 4, 2026, indicating strong performance compared to JEPI [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - JEPI utilizes a strategy that combines active stock selection with equity-linked notes (ELNs) to generate income, but it faces tax inefficiencies due to the nature of its income [1]. - DIVO focuses on high-quality large-cap companies with consistent dividend and earnings growth, generating income by selling covered calls on individual stocks rather than relying on ELNs [1]. - IDVO employs a similar strategy to DIVO but targets international stocks, using covered calls on individual securities from the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index [2]. Group 3: Expense Ratios and Yield - JEPI has an expense ratio of 0.35% and a 30-day SEC yield of 7.56%, but its income is primarily classified as ordinary income [1]. - DIVO has a higher expense ratio of 0.56% and a distribution rate of 4.79%, which is lower than JEPI's yield but has delivered stronger long-term returns [1]. - IDVO carries an expense ratio of 0.65% and expects a distribution yield of 6.08%, with income generated from both dividends and covered call premiums [2].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 市场震荡回撤，但盈利预测稳步向好 价格走势：多数行业回撤，软件显著反弹 本周，标普 500 指数-2.0%（上周-0.4%），纳斯达克综指-1.2%（上周-1.0%）。 风格：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.7%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-3.5%） ＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-3.6%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-4.5%）。 4 个行业上涨，20 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：软件与服务（+6.3%）、商 业和专业服务（+2.3%）、电信业务（+2.3%）、能源（+1.1%）；下跌的主 要有：家庭与个人用品（-7.5%）、耐用消费品与服装（-7.5%）、材料（-6.8%）、 食品饮料与烟草（-6.1%）、运输（-5.5%）。 资金流向：整体加速流出，软硬件显著分化 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-99.4（亿美元， 下同），上周为-31.9，近 4 周为-154.3，近 13 周为-283.8。 6 个行业资金流入，18 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：软件与服务 （+49.1）、能源（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - New Mountain Capital has terminated a significant deal proposed by former executive Matt Holt, which aimed to acquire five portfolio companies for a total of $32 billion, marking a notable shift in the firm's strategic direction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deal Termination - New Mountain Capital informed clients that discussions regarding the acquisition deal have ended, following multiple proposals and counteroffers [2]. - The firm cited that Holt missed a previous deadline for the offer and deemed a recent bid as less favorable than the original proposal [3]. - Concerns regarding deferred payments, debt structure, and governance issues were highlighted as reasons for the deal's termination [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The proposed deal would have generated over $14 billion in proceeds for New Mountain, supported by more than $12 billion in debt from major financial institutions [5]. - A revised proposal aimed at addressing concerns was also rejected, indicating ongoing challenges in reaching an agreement [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Holt's plan involved merging five healthcare technology companies into a new venture named Thoreau, which would leverage artificial intelligence to reduce healthcare costs [7]. - New Mountain Capital expressed belief in the potential of these companies and indicated that they may still pursue the idea of combining them without Holt's involvement [8]. - The firm is exploring various structures and exit strategies for the companies, emphasizing their commitment to maximizing value [9].

The latest string of layoff announcements has stoked fears of an AI-powered jobs apocalypse, though the sectors seeing big losses echo a previous warning from tech billionaire Peter Thiel. “It seems much worse for the math people than the word people,” he said in a recently resurfaced clip from a 2024 interview. He added that even in STEM fields currently untouched by AI automation, such as medical care, math skills will be less relevant as a barrier to entry. “If you want to go to medical school, we ...

摩根大通表示，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构，如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约10美元，但是 中东产油国"停产潮"迅速蔓延，伊拉克已大幅减产，科威特等即将跟进，停产规模最高或逼近600万桶/日。一旦全面停产， 油价或暴涨30美元。高盛警告霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌90%，若危机持续，油价甚至超越2008年历史峰值。 华尔街见闻 中东局势正把全球石油市场推向一场真实的供应危机。 随着霍尔木兹海峡商业航运几近瘫痪，海湾地区的原油出口正不断受阻，库存迅速累积。一旦储罐与海上油轮容量被填满， 部分产油国将不得不削减产量—— 一场由物流瓶颈触发的区域性"停产潮"正在逼近。 摩根大通大宗商品分析师NatashaKaneva在3月7日的最新报告中估算，海湾地区的供应中断规模可能从目前约150万桶/日， 在本周末升至300万桶/日，下周末超过400万桶/日；若成品油储罐容量耗尽，停产规模甚至可能逼近600万桶/日。 在这样的背景下，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构： 利好消息可能令油价回落约10美元，但一旦海湾停产真正扩散，油价上涨30美元并不夸张。 与此同时，高盛监测数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌约 ...

Running a bar is hard work. Even Jamie Dimon and his team are still figuring out how to manage one inside their $3 billion headquarters. 🔗 https://t.co/1vtMHLyA2L https://t.co/R4wmIHf4FA ...

随着美伊冲突愈演愈烈，途经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮和货船数量骤减，这是全球最关键的"石油咽喉要道"。根据摩根大通的描述，霍尔木兹海 峡的商业交通已"几乎完全停止"。 美国总统特朗普已承诺，将为霍尔木兹海峡上的油轮护航。他本周指示美国国际开发金融公司（DFC）以非常合理的价格提供政治风险保险 和保证，以确保所有海上贸易的金融安全，特别是通过海湾的能源贸易。他强调"无论如何，美国都将确保能源自由流通到世界各地。" 小摩分析师表示，霍尔木兹海峡的商业交通仍然"几乎不存在，活动主要限于伊朗船只"，目前通过该海峡的船舶数量约为历史平均水平的 6%。 据全球贸易数据分析公司Kpler称，目前约有411艘油轮滞留在波斯湾。这个数字本身并不异常，因为船舶通常会在该地区港口泊位等待装卸 货物。但该公司石油分析师Matt Smith表示，在当前的冲突中，空船数量正在下降，而满载油轮的数量正在上升。 Smith还补充说，在袭击发生前的几周里，海湾地区活动频繁，伊朗似乎预料到了军事行动，并增加了原油出口。数据显示，2月16日当周， 伊朗原油出口量为2650万桶，而该国通常每周的原油出口量约为1000万至1200万桶。 最后，摩根大通分析师 ...