证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 市场震荡回撤，但盈利预测稳步向好 价格走势：多数行业回撤，软件显著反弹 本周，标普 500 指数-2.0%（上周-0.4%），纳斯达克综指-1.2%（上周-1.0%）。 风格：大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.7%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值-3.5%） ＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-3.6%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-4.5%）。 4 个行业上涨，20 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：软件与服务（+6.3%）、商 业和专业服务（+2.3%）、电信业务（+2.3%）、能源（+1.1%）；下跌的主 要有：家庭与个人用品（-7.5%）、耐用消费品与服装（-7.5%）、材料（-6.8%）、 食品饮料与烟草（-6.1%）、运输（-5.5%）。 资金流向：整体加速流出，软硬件显著分化 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-99.4（亿美元， 下同），上周为-31.9，近 4 周为-154.3，近 13 周为-283.8。 6 个行业资金流入，18 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：软件与服务 （+49.1）、能源（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - New Mountain Capital has terminated a significant deal proposed by former executive Matt Holt, which aimed to acquire five portfolio companies for a total of $32 billion, marking a notable shift in the firm's strategic direction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deal Termination - New Mountain Capital informed clients that discussions regarding the acquisition deal have ended, following multiple proposals and counteroffers [2]. - The firm cited that Holt missed a previous deadline for the offer and deemed a recent bid as less favorable than the original proposal [3]. - Concerns regarding deferred payments, debt structure, and governance issues were highlighted as reasons for the deal's termination [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The proposed deal would have generated over $14 billion in proceeds for New Mountain, supported by more than $12 billion in debt from major financial institutions [5]. - A revised proposal aimed at addressing concerns was also rejected, indicating ongoing challenges in reaching an agreement [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Holt's plan involved merging five healthcare technology companies into a new venture named Thoreau, which would leverage artificial intelligence to reduce healthcare costs [7]. - New Mountain Capital expressed belief in the potential of these companies and indicated that they may still pursue the idea of combining them without Holt's involvement [8]. - The firm is exploring various structures and exit strategies for the companies, emphasizing their commitment to maximizing value [9].

摩根大通表示，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构，如果出现缓和局势的外交或军事进展，油价可能下跌约10美元，但是 中东产油国"停产潮"迅速蔓延，伊拉克已大幅减产，科威特等即将跟进，停产规模最高或逼近600万桶/日。一旦全面停产， 油价或暴涨30美元。高盛警告霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌90%，若危机持续，油价甚至超越2008年历史峰值。 华尔街见闻 中东局势正把全球石油市场推向一场真实的供应危机。 随着霍尔木兹海峡商业航运几近瘫痪，海湾地区的原油出口正不断受阻，库存迅速累积。一旦储罐与海上油轮容量被填满， 部分产油国将不得不削减产量—— 一场由物流瓶颈触发的区域性"停产潮"正在逼近。 摩根大通大宗商品分析师NatashaKaneva在3月7日的最新报告中估算，海湾地区的供应中断规模可能从目前约150万桶/日， 在本周末升至300万桶/日，下周末超过400万桶/日；若成品油储罐容量耗尽，停产规模甚至可能逼近600万桶/日。 在这样的背景下，油价面临一种明显的不对称风险结构： 利好消息可能令油价回落约10美元，但一旦海湾停产真正扩散，油价上涨30美元并不夸张。 与此同时，高盛监测数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡石油流量已暴跌约 ...

Running a bar is hard work. Even Jamie Dimon and his team are still figuring out how to manage one inside their $3 billion headquarters. 🔗 https://t.co/1vtMHLyA2L https://t.co/R4wmIHf4FA ...

随着美伊冲突愈演愈烈，途经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮和货船数量骤减，这是全球最关键的"石油咽喉要道"。根据摩根大通的描述，霍尔木兹海 峡的商业交通已"几乎完全停止"。 美国总统特朗普已承诺，将为霍尔木兹海峡上的油轮护航。他本周指示美国国际开发金融公司（DFC）以非常合理的价格提供政治风险保险 和保证，以确保所有海上贸易的金融安全，特别是通过海湾的能源贸易。他强调"无论如何，美国都将确保能源自由流通到世界各地。" 小摩分析师表示，霍尔木兹海峡的商业交通仍然"几乎不存在，活动主要限于伊朗船只"，目前通过该海峡的船舶数量约为历史平均水平的 6%。 据全球贸易数据分析公司Kpler称，目前约有411艘油轮滞留在波斯湾。这个数字本身并不异常，因为船舶通常会在该地区港口泊位等待装卸 货物。但该公司石油分析师Matt Smith表示，在当前的冲突中，空船数量正在下降，而满载油轮的数量正在上升。 Smith还补充说，在袭击发生前的几周里，海湾地区活动频繁，伊朗似乎预料到了军事行动，并增加了原油出口。数据显示，2月16日当周， 伊朗原油出口量为2650万桶，而该国通常每周的原油出口量约为1000万至1200万桶。 最后，摩根大通分析师 ...

JPMorgan’s own analysts said last week that the bill could be approved by mid-year and would “reshape market structure” for crypto, even as the bank’s CEO publicly fights against it.Polymarket bettors currently give the CLARITY Act a 71% chance of becoming law in 2026. Those odds have been volatile, crashing from 80% to 44% during a February Senate stalemate before recovering on renewed White House pressure.Trending: Build your own AI-powered index in minutes — and earn an uncapped 1% match when you move yo ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuwait, a significant OPEC member, is reducing oil production due to insufficient storage capacity for crude oil [1][2] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Kuwait has begun scaling back production at certain oil fields and is considering further cuts to its production and refining capacity, focusing solely on domestic consumption [2] - Data from Kpler indicates that Kuwait will need to further reduce output in the next 12 days to avoid reaching full storage capacity [2] Group 2: Regional Context - The storage issues in Kuwait are linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has led to instability in the global oil market [4] - Iraq has already cut its oil production by over half, including a reduction of 700,000 barrels per day from the Rumaila field, indicating a broader trend of production cuts in the region [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The escalating conflict, including oil tanker attacks and potential blockades, poses risks to global oil supply, potentially leading to price increases and supply disruptions [4]

周五,政府进一步加强了这些努力,宣布了一项200亿美元的再保险计划,专门用于恢复通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运交通。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周五对 摩根大通(NYSE:JPM) 发出严厉指责,称该银行近期对政府支持的石油保险计划的分析"糟糕透顶"且"完全不负责任"。 对于市场参与者而言,财政部与华尔街最大银行之间的口水战凸显了这场冲突的高风险性,因为政府支持的保险任何被认为的不足都可能加剧供应冲 击,目前布伦特原油价格徘徊在每桶90美元附近。 贝森特在Fox Business上发言时驳斥了这些假设"完全存在缺陷",他指出DFC的保险仅在船只处于高风险的霍尔木兹海峡和海湾地区时才需要,之后 船只会转回标准的私人保险。 财政部的强硬立场是在特朗普总统下令DFC稳定贸易流动的几天后做出的,此前美国与伊朗在"史诗怒火行动"后敌对关系升级。 争议的焦点 在于美国国际发展金融公司(DFC)为穿越动荡的波斯湾的油轮提供紧急保险的能力,地缘政治紧张局势持续扰动能源市场。 这场分歧源于摩根大通分析师(包括娜塔莎·卡内娃)周三发布的一份报告,该报告估计DFC剩余的贷款空间约为1540亿美元。该银行计算出,私人市场 目前未能为前往海湾 ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted a JPMorgan report for what he called “terrible” and inaccurate analysis about constraints over a US government lending agency’s ability to offer backup insurance for oil cargoes https://t.co/2hDuDspqjf ...

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic adviser, is pointing to widening cracks in private credit markets. He said the signs mirror JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon‘s earlier “cockroach” warning — and more “bugs” are now in plain sight.El-Erian Raises the Termite QuestionEl-Erian wrote on X on Friday that this week’s private credit news “echoes Jamie Dimon’s recent warning about ‘cockroaches’—the idea that early signs of excesses are likely to be followed by others.”He listed “valuation gaps ...