大胆预测：今明两年，若无异常情况，社会可能迎来“五大趋势”

Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, but a crash is unlikely. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates have been implemented, but they only prevent drastic drops rather than reversing the trend. By 2025, a new normal of "stability with decline" is anticipated [4] - In 2022, national commercial housing sales area decreased by 5%-10%, and new construction area fell by 10%-15%. The enthusiasm for home buying among younger generations has significantly decreased, with over 60% of young people considering homeownership as non-essential [4] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment pressure is high, with over 10 million new graduates entering the job market and companies becoming increasingly selective. The global youth unemployment rate is projected to reach 12.6% in 2024, with a significant decline in low-skill job opportunities [5][6] - Many individuals are turning to flexible employment options such as food delivery and ride-sharing, with the food delivery sector alone absorbing over 7 million jobs, 35% of which are held by college graduates [7] Group 3: Financial Trends - Bank interest rates have dropped significantly, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5%, the lowest in history. This is part of an effort to encourage spending and investment in the real economy [8][9] - Despite lower interest rates, total deposits have increased by 8%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment. Recommendations include diversifying investments into government bonds and structured deposits, which offer higher returns [10][11] Group 4: Technology Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of daily life, with applications in various sectors, including food service and banking. For instance, AI has replaced 30% of bank tellers and is being used in delivery services [12][13] - AI primarily replaces repetitive jobs, while roles requiring creativity and interpersonal skills are becoming more valuable. Embracing AI and acquiring new skills is encouraged [15][16] Group 5: Aging Population Trends - The aging population in China is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2025. This demographic shift poses challenges for pension systems as the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries declines [17][18] - Innovative solutions such as intergenerational cohabitation, where younger individuals rent rooms from elderly residents while providing assistance, are emerging as potential strategies to address aging-related issues [19][20] - The aging industry is projected to see significant innovation and growth, with opportunities in smart caregiving and senior community services, representing a trillion-dollar market [21]