时事观察丨美国经济缘何坏消息不断

Economic Outlook - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over increasing government debt and interest expenditures, with the federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024, which is 6.4% of GDP [1][2] - Moody's predicts that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, the federal deficit could increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035 [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 50.8% in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and a continuous drop for five months [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [2] Economic Performance - The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed largely to the impact of increased tariffs [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, grew by 1.8%, showing a significant slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Retail Sector Impact - Retail sales in April increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, significantly lower than the growth rate in March, indicating weakened consumer spending [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy are planning to raise prices on imported goods to offset increased costs due to tariffs, despite warnings from President Trump against passing costs onto consumers [3] Tourism Industry - The number of international visitors to the US decreased by 11.6% year-over-year in March, negatively impacting the tourism sector, which contributes approximately 9% to the US economy [3] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a 7% decline in tourism revenue for the US by 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed has opted to maintain current rates, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change [3] Trade Policy Concerns - Analysts express that the high tariff levels, despite recent adjustments, will continue to exert negative effects on the US economy, potentially leading to high inflation, high unemployment, and economic recession in the long term [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy may enter a period characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4]