国君煤炭：价格强势难改，价值发现开启

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing sustained profitability, with a strong cash advantage and high dividends, indicating significant hidden value and potential for substantial valuation increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Performance Overview - In 2021, the coal industry saw a significant increase in total profit growth of 225.3%, with listed companies achieving a net profit growth of 74.7% [3][7] - In Q1 2022, coal prices remained high, leading to a year-on-year profit increase of 191.4% for listed companies, with specific segments like thermal coal and anthracite showing growth rates of 87.6% and 189.4% respectively [3][10][12] - The industry's loss ratio decreased to a near four-year low of 22% by December 2021, but rose to 33% in March 2022, primarily due to losses from small, high-cost coal mines [3][16] Group 2: Financial Analysis - The coal sector's operating net cash flow significantly increased in 2021, with a 73% year-on-year growth, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [19][24] - The debt ratio decreased to 47.0% in Q1 2022, with financial costs also reaching a record low of 1.2%, reflecting improved financial health [23][24] - The sector's cash flow from operations continued to show strong growth in Q1 2022, with a 44% increase year-on-year [19][24] Group 3: Operational Analysis - The coal price surge in 2021 led to a substantial increase in gross profit margins for coal mining companies, with a 53.4% rise in sales revenue against a 23.8% increase in costs [30][32] - Cost increases were generally controllable, with the average cost for 25 coal mining companies rising by 23.8%, driven by higher raw material and labor costs [32][35] - Despite a decline in approved coal mining capacity due to supply-side reforms, many listed companies have significant construction and planning projects, indicating growth potential [36][37] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prices due to global energy shortages, with significant demand for coal driven by geopolitical factors [45][46] - Companies like China Shenhua and others are recommended for their high dividends and growth potential in the coal chemical sector [52] - The market is likely to reassess the profitability and dividend capabilities of coal companies, with substantial valuation uplift potential [51][52]