海天国际(01882.HK)：2024年业绩符合预期 期待海外需求接力国内

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance aligns with expectations, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by strong demand for small machine models and effective cost control [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.128 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, and a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, up 23.63% year-on-year [1]. - In the second half of 2024, revenue reached 8.111 billion yuan, growing by 21.2%, with a net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.8% increase [1]. - Domestic sales amounted to 10.112 billion yuan, a 27.73% increase, driven by demand from small enterprises and inventory replenishment in consumer goods [2]. - Overseas sales were 6.016 billion yuan, up 16.76%, with significant growth in Southeast Asia, North America, and parts of South America [2]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 32.46%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points, attributed to low raw material prices and economies of scale [2]. - The overall expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs were 7.91%, 6.43%, and -1.08%, respectively, showing a reduction in expense ratios [2]. - The net profit margin stood at 19.10%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. Strategic Development - The company is pursuing a "50-50" strategy for domestic and overseas markets, aiming to increase overseas revenue to 50% in the long term [2]. - New product development is underway to enhance competitiveness and customer penetration in the domestic market [2]. - The establishment of factories in Serbia and India is expected to accelerate the growth of overseas revenue [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been slightly raised by 4.2% to 3.640 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 4.067 billion yuan for 2026 [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9.6x for 2025 and 8.5x for 2026, with a target price of 29.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 27% [2].