美股是否有较大调整风险：特朗普减税法案、2026年财年预算、主权信用评级下调

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, resulting in the loss of the highest rating from all three major rating agencies [1][12] - The downgrade coincides with the critical phase of Trump's tax cut plan and a budget impasse [1][12] - The report from GF Securities indicates that the uncertainty surrounding the tax cut plan and the 2026 fiscal budget may not lead to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market [1][13] Group 2 - The 2025 fiscal budget remains unresolved, with Congress relying on continuing resolutions until the end of September [2] - The House and Senate have set ambitious tax cut and debt ceiling increase targets, with the House proposing a $4.5 trillion tax cut and $2 trillion in spending cuts over ten years [2][4] - The Senate's targets include a $3.8 trillion tax cut and a $1.2 trillion spending cut, with a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [4] Group 3 - The proposed tax cut plan aims to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, potentially increasing the average tax burden on ordinary taxpayers by 22% if not passed [5] - The 2026 fiscal budget proposal indicates that non-defense discretionary spending will decrease by over $160 billion (23%) compared to 2025 [5][9] - Significant cuts are expected in various departments, including a 56% reduction in the National Science Foundation and a 54% cut in the Environmental Protection Agency [8] Group 4 - Historical experience suggests that while rating adjustments may lead to short-term bond yield increases and stock market volatility, the mid-term impact is likely to be limited [13] - Current economic data in the U.S. shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession in consumer spending or durable goods orders [15]