双良节能(600481)：一季度环比减亏 设备在手订单充足

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and profitability for 2024, with a shift from profit to loss, particularly in the photovoltaic segment, while showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.038 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 43.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.134 billion, shifting from profit to loss [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was -2.22%, down 16.96 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -16.37%, down 22.85 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.691 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.29%, with a net profit of -794 million, indicating a worsening loss [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.079 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 51.06%, but the net profit loss narrowed to -161 million, showing improvement [1][3]. Business Segments - The photovoltaic product segment faced profitability challenges, with 2024 revenue of 8.862 billion and a gross margin of -16.6%, down 25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s capacity for monocrystalline silicon is expected to rank among the top three in the industry by mid-2024, despite current pressures from supply-demand mismatches [2]. - The energy-saving and water-saving equipment segment has a strong order backlog, with significant orders in heat pumps, heat exchangers, and cooling systems, indicating stable growth potential [2]. Cash Flow and Asset Impairment - The company maintained positive cash flow in recent quarters, with operating cash flow showing improvement despite a slight outflow for the full year of 2024 [3]. - Asset impairment losses for 2024 totaled 1.03 billion, but these losses have significantly narrowed in Q1 2025 [3]. Investment Outlook - The company’s equipment business is expected to grow steadily, while the photovoltaic business is at a profitability low point, with potential for recovery [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 214 million, 691 million, and 1.138 billion respectively, reflecting a more competitive market [4]. - The target price for 2026 is set at 5.53, based on a 15x PE ratio, maintaining a "recommended" rating [4].