国际资本避风港：超长久期国债的2025配置密码

Group 1 - The Chinese bond market is currently experiencing a favorable period due to multiple policy benefits and macroeconomic conditions [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has maintained a loose monetary policy since May 2025, implementing measures such as a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis points interest rate cut, exceeding market expectations [3] - The issuance of special bonds by the Ministry of Finance is accelerating, requiring central bank liquidity support, which reinforces a stable yet slightly loose funding environment [3] Group 2 - Domestic inflation remains low, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at -0.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating weak domestic demand [4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped to a historical low of 1.62%, while ultra-long bonds (like 30-year bonds) still have room for yield spread recovery due to liquidity premiums [4][6] - The international market shows rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has eased capital outflow pressure and attracted foreign investment into Chinese bonds [6] Group 3 - Long-term investors, such as banks and insurance institutions, are increasingly allocating funds to ultra-long bonds, matching their long-duration liabilities with the 30-year government bonds [7] - The investment structure for ultra-long bonds is expected to diversify further with the expansion of the third pillar of pensions and the easing of foreign capital access [7] - Key signals to monitor include whether domestic CPI and PMI data exceed expectations and any substantial adjustments in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [7]