内外风险缓和，把握中期布局机遇

Market Commentary - The easing of internal and external risks has improved risk appetite, with short-term negotiations boosting market sentiment, leading to a potential upward trend. However, after the positive news is priced in, there may be a lack of strong catalysts, and the domestic economy continues to show signs of weak recovery. Structural opportunities are expected to become more prominent in the second half of 2025 under the backdrop of macro policies and stabilization funds [1] - The easing of tariff disputes between China and the U.S. has exceeded market expectations, with the U.S. showing a more urgent willingness to reach an agreement due to multiple constraints. The short-term impact of tariffs on the market is weakening, but caution is advised regarding the potential for policy reversals reminiscent of Trump's administration [1] Domestic Economic Recovery - The temporary pause in tariffs is expected to accelerate export opportunities, while social financing and credit show uneven performance, indicating a need for stronger domestic demand policies. The new regulations on asset restructuring and policy support for technology finance are likely to attract foreign investment back to China [2] - Under the recovery of market risk appetite, sectors such as technology and export-oriented industries (e.g., machinery and automotive) are expected to benefit directly from the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions. The focus will shift towards new productive forces, with AI capital expenditures and domestic substitution accelerating [2] Financial Data Insights - In April, new credit amounted to 0.28 trillion yuan, while the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in social financing stock and an 8.0% increase in M2 [5] - The financial data indicates strong fiscal expansion supporting social financing and M2 growth, but the internal credit tightening may continue, suggesting that the recovery of internal financing demand is still pending [6] Overseas Economic News - The U.S. April CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than expected and previous values, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.8% [7] - The U.S. April CPI marks the lowest level since February 2021, indicating that the impact of tariffs has not fully materialized yet. The recent tariff reductions have significantly weakened inflation risks, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts [8] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with accelerated sector rotation, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors leading gains. The market's risk appetite has improved following the U.S.-China joint statement, but there is a lack of strong catalysts for further upward movement [14] - The strategy focuses on actively positioning in core assets, leveraging both technology and dividend themes. The expansion of insurance capital pilot programs and the reduction of stock risk factors are expected to release over 100 billion yuan in incremental funds, favoring high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [15]