铜市｜关税互减超预期，现货紧张支撑铜价偏强震荡

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic spot prices and transaction spreads have shown fluctuations, with significant changes in the market sentiment due to easing U.S. inflation and favorable tariff policies [1][2] - The overall market sentiment has improved, supported by a series of stimulus policies in China, including interest rate cuts and capital market reforms, leading to a marginal macroeconomic improvement [1] - Social inventory continues to decline, although the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating resilience in the market despite high copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges as rising copper prices have suppressed downstream orders, with customers primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders [1][2] - The current market is characterized by a tight supply situation, but the demand release has not been significant, resulting in a cautious purchasing stance from downstream buyers [2] - The expectation for next week’s price spread is between a premium of 200 to 300 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand weakness [1][2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - As of May 16, the total national electrolytic copper social inventory is 128,000 tons, showing an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week [3][5] - In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 13,600 tons, while in Shanghai, it increased by 6,700 tons to 98,200 tons [3][5] - Global inventory, including the Shanghai bonded zone, stands at 527,000 tons, which is an increase of 8,200 tons compared to the previous week [5]