闫瑞祥：美国信用评级下调，黄金成投资者避风港

Macro Environment - Recent global financial and geopolitical turmoil has highlighted the investment value of gold, with Moody's downgrading the US AAA credit rating and predicting a rise in the US debt-to-GDP ratio to 134% by 2035, leading to an increase in US bond yields and a crisis of confidence in the dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, where Israel has launched operations against Hamas, hitting over 670 targets, while negotiations for a ceasefire remain stalled; in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has initiated large-scale drone strikes after unsuccessful talks, indicating a potential escalation of actions [1] - Investors are turning to gold and US bonds as a dual hedge against risks, with gold prices surging by $40 in early Asian trading on Monday [1] - Key upcoming economic data from the US, including unemployment claims and PMI, along with speeches from Federal Reserve officials, will be critical for market assessments of economic and policy directions [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday, reaching a high of 101.234 and a low of 100.493, closing at 100.966 [2] - The market is currently observing key support levels between 100.20-40, with a focus on the potential for a bearish trend in the medium term as the weekly resistance is noted at 102.40 [2] Gold Market - Last Friday, gold prices experienced a decline, with a high of 3252.02 and a low of 3154.14, closing at 3201.06 [4] - The short-term outlook for gold appears bullish, with a focus on testing daily resistance levels and filling gaps [4] - The monthly analysis indicates a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, while the weekly support is at 3120, suggesting a continued bullish perspective unless the weekly support is broken [5] - Key resistance levels to watch are at 3275 and the gap at 3325, with a short-term support level at 3200 [5][7] Euro and Other Currencies - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1130 and a high of 1.1219, closing at 1.1160 [7] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with key levels to watch at 1.1260 for resistance and 1.1130 for support, indicating potential trading strategies based on breakouts [8][10]