KVB PRIME：中国4月经济数据稳健，美联储降息预期推迟

Core Viewpoint - China's economic data for April shows stable growth despite a complex external environment, with significant contributions from domestic demand and overall employment stability [1][4]. Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 6.0% and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% [1]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased to 5.1%, indicating a stable employment situation [1]. - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, and total goods import and export value increased by 2.4%, reflecting resilience in foreign trade [3]. Policy Impact - The combination of macroeconomic policies in April has led to sustained industrial production growth, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [3]. - The service sector has shown stable growth due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with digital transformation and increased travel boosting information and business services [3]. - The effects of the "old-for-new" consumption policy continue to support stable market sales, particularly in basic living goods and some upgraded products [3]. Global Monetary Policy Trends - The Federal Reserve has indicated a reluctance to lower interest rates, with Chairman Powell noting the challenges posed by potential supply shocks and unstable inflation [3]. - The European Central Bank is considering further rate cuts, while the Bank of Mexico has reduced its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% [3]. - The divergence in global monetary policies is expected to have significant implications for financial markets [4].