鹏华基本面投教系列｜近期金价大幅波动，还能配置吗？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing global trade tensions and geopolitical situations [2][3] Group 1: Recent Gold Price Performance - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a cumulative decline of 4.32% from May 12 to May 16, marking the largest weekly drop since November 2024 [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Decline - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand as global tariff negotiations have made significant progress, leading to a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs between China and the U.S. [2] - The resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, along with a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, has further alleviated geopolitical tensions, contributing to the decrease in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Federal Reserve's signals indicating a reluctance to cut interest rates have delayed market expectations for rate cuts, diminishing the attractiveness of gold [2] - Large-scale profit-taking activities have also contributed to price disturbances, as some investors opted to secure gains following a rapid increase in gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Most institutions predict that gold prices may continue to experience volatility in the short term, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains intact [3] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), further progress in U.S.-China tariff negotiations could enhance risk appetite, potentially leading to a decline in COMEX gold prices below $3,000 per ounce [3] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that short-term factors, such as the retreat of rate cut expectations, may exert pressure on gold prices [3] - In the medium to long term, the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is at a high level, and the U.S. economy is gradually moving towards stagflation, indicating a trend towards the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system, which may support higher gold prices [3] - From a long-term perspective, gold assets are still considered an important component of asset allocation, and investors should develop reasonable investment strategies based on their goals and risk tolerance while monitoring market dynamics [3]