3 6 Ke·2025-05-19 09:50Core Insights - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) market is expected to reach a structural turning point, with range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounting for over 50% of the market share, driven by models like the Wanjie M8 and Avita 06 [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 are projected to reach 11.26 million units, with range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles contributing 4.52 million units, showing an impressive year-on-year growth of 85.2% compared to 15% for pure electric vehicles [1] - The market is experiencing a deep competition phase regarding technology routes, raising questions about whether range-extended and plug-in hybrid technologies are practical choices for carbon neutrality or merely transitional solutions [1] User Demand and Technological Benefits - The pursuit of a "no-anxiety experience" is a core driver for consumers, with range-extended vehicles meeting both low-cost urban commuting needs and long-distance travel concerns [3] - For instance, the Li Auto L series boasts a comprehensive range exceeding 1000 km, with a cost of less than 0.1 yuan per kilometer in pure electric mode, appealing to family users [3] - Plug-in hybrid vehicles, like BYD's DM-i, maintain fuel consumption below 3L/100km even in depleted states, balancing performance and economy [3] Technological Breakthroughs - The range-extended structure has lower R&D costs (40% less than plug-in hybrids) and production line transformation costs (one-third of plug-in hybrids), facilitating rapid market entry for new players [5] - Li Auto achieved over 500,000 annual sales in 2024 with a single range-extended model, while the Wanjie M7 surpassed 190,000 units in deliveries, validating the commercial viability of this approach [5] - Plug-in hybrid technology has also seen significant sales, with BYD's DM-i models exceeding one million units, showcasing strong market penetration across various vehicle segments [5] Environmental Concerns and Technological Debate - The rise in sales of hybrid vehicles has intensified debates over technology routes, with range-extended technology facing criticism for higher energy consumption and carbon emissions compared to plug-in hybrids [6] - Critics argue that the two-step energy conversion process of range-extended vehicles is less efficient, while proponents highlight their fuel-saving potential of 30%-50% in less developed areas [6] - The market is navigating a balance between ideal environmental goals and real user needs, as highlighted by industry experts [6] Strategic Choices of Automakers - New entrants like Li Auto and Wanjie are leveraging range-extended technology to establish market recognition, while traditional automakers focus on plug-in hybrid technologies [7] - The differentiation in strategies reflects a broader trend of technological convergence, with companies like Li Auto introducing pure electric models and BYD integrating high-voltage platforms with hybrid technologies [9] Future Outlook - The potential widespread adoption of 800V platforms could mitigate the refueling disadvantages of hybrid vehicles, although it may increase costs due to the need for upgraded components [11] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to revolutionize pure electric vehicle range by 2027, posing challenges to the transitional status of range-extended and plug-in hybrid technologies [11] - The consensus in the industry suggests that hybrid technologies will remain mainstream from 2025 to 2030, as they address user needs while filling gaps left by pure electric vehicles [12]