销量不涨股价涨 特斯拉的“魔法”还能撑多久？

Core Insights - Investors are looking for signs that CEO Elon Musk's political stance is no longer creating brand challenges for Tesla, but they are still waiting for evidence [2] - Tesla's recent sales data has been disappointing, raising concerns about second-quarter delivery expectations [2][3] - The company delivered approximately 337,000 vehicles in the first quarter, a 13% decline year-over-year, significantly below Wall Street's expectation of 455,000 [2] - Tesla's stock price has increased by 47% since the earnings report, but this is not necessarily due to a sales rebound [2] Sales Performance - In April, Tesla's sales in key European markets (France, Germany, and the UK) fell by approximately 49% year-over-year, following a 45% decline in the first quarter [2] - The U.S. sales in April also saw a 13% year-over-year decline, following a 9% drop in the first quarter [3] - Despite the launch of the new Model Y, the anticipated sales boost did not materialize, with expected production of 84,000 units in the second quarter, a 17% increase from the first quarter but a 12% year-over-year decline [3] Market Outlook - The Chinese market has shown a weak start to the second quarter, with sales down approximately 26% year-over-year in the first six weeks [3] - Investors are closely monitoring whether Tesla can deliver around 13,000 vehicles in China, which would indicate a return to normalcy [3] - Wall Street currently estimates Tesla's second-quarter deliveries to be around 412,000, a more than 20% increase from the first quarter but still a 7% decrease year-over-year [3] Stock Price Impact - The impact of declining delivery expectations on Tesla's stock price remains uncertain, as the stock market is forward-looking [4] - Investors are currently more focused on Tesla's autonomous taxi and robotics initiatives, with plans to launch Robotaxi services in Austin, Texas, in June [4] - Continuous growth in vehicle sales is expected to have a positive effect on the stock price [4]