资深投资者：最悲观的情况下 标普500指数将跌破4000点！

Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. fiscal situation is highlighted in a recent prediction by David Kotok, co-founder and former CIO of Cumberland Advisors, who manages $3.3 billion in assets [1] - Kotok estimates that U.S. tariff measures will reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by $30 over the next 12 months, decreasing the expected earnings from $260 to $230 [1] - He notes that if the combined pressures of tariffs and economic slowdown persist, earnings per share could fall to the range of $200-220, leading to an S&P 500 index drop to 4000-4400 points based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [1] Group 2 - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop below 4000 points, but if tariffs remain at an initial expected rate of 10% and the U.S. service trade surplus faces only mild retaliation, the index could hold around 5000 points [2] - Kotok emphasizes that a shift in Trump’s policies could alter the trajectory, and a financial crisis triggering Federal Reserve intervention would significantly reshape the landscape [2]