中国又悄悄干大事，3月份再抛189亿美元美债，引爆美元信用危机？

Core Viewpoint - China is significantly reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, which raises concerns about potential impacts on the US dollar's creditworthiness and the stability of the US debt market [1][3]. Group 1: China's Actions on US Treasury Bonds - In March, China reduced its US Treasury holdings by nearly $20 billion, marking the first time in a decade that it has ceded its position as the second-largest holder of US debt to the UK [1]. - Currently, China holds over $700 billion in US Treasury bonds, down nearly $300 billion from April 2022 and almost halved from its peak of $1.3 trillion in 2011 [1]. - China is primarily holding short-term US Treasury bonds, which, despite lower yields, offer high liquidity, allowing for quick sales in case of a dollar crisis [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The recent rise in US Treasury yields indicates a significant sell-off in the market, with China being a key contributor to this trend [3]. - Among the top ten foreign holders of US debt, only China and Ireland are currently selling, while other countries, such as the UK, have increased their holdings [3]. - The likelihood of a short-term crisis in the US Treasury market is considered low, although risks are accumulating over time [3]. Group 3: China's Strategy for Currency Internationalization - China is facilitating the replacement of US dollar debt with renminbi debt for countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, thereby promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [4]. - Over the past two years, China has reportedly provided over $100 billion to help these countries repay their US dollar debts, with expectations for this scale to increase [4]. Group 4: Diversification of Investments - China is diversifying its investments to mitigate the risks associated with holding excessive US dollar assets, including increasing its gold reserves [5]. - The People's Bank of China has added 70,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in March, continuing a trend of increasing gold holdings over the past six months [5]. Group 5: Implications for the US Debt Market - China's ongoing sell-off of US Treasury bonds may lead to price volatility in the market, but it is not expected to trigger an immediate crisis [7]. - The US, as the issuer of the dollar, can manage its debt through monetary expansion, although this could undermine the dollar's creditworthiness [7]. - The dynamics of US-China trade and the recent negotiations on tariffs are influencing the US Treasury market, with expectations of increased selling pressure in April [7].