5年了，楼市的这轮周期何时结束？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a period of rapid growth to a prolonged adjustment phase, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and restoring confidence [3][4][9]. Market Trends - The real estate market has experienced a downward cycle since 2020, lasting nearly five years, which is longer than the historical average of approximately 3.5 years [3]. - In 2024, over 780 policies were introduced to support the real estate sector, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates to historical lows [3][5]. - By March 2025, 24 out of 70 major cities reported an increase in new home prices, with cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the price growth [3][5]. Structural Changes - There is a notable structural differentiation in the market, with first-tier and core second-tier cities showing signs of recovery, while smaller cities continue to face challenges [5][6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, first-tier cities saw a 17.1% year-on-year increase in residential property transaction area, ending three years of negative growth [5][6]. Policy Impact - The implementation of new standards and policies is shifting the focus from quantity to quality in real estate development, with high-quality housing seeing strong demand [8]. - The government continues to support the market through measures such as lowering public housing loan rates, which is expected to further reduce purchasing costs [8]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize overall while optimizing its structure, with first-tier cities likely to see simultaneous increases in volume and price [9]. - The year 2025 is viewed as a critical window for potential homebuyers, emphasizing the importance of aligning purchases with personal needs and market trends [10][11].