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达利欧警告:降低美国评级的穆迪其实还低估了美债风险
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-05-19 18:57

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's only reflects a small part of the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating that the real risks are much more severe than what the downgrade suggests [1][2]. Group 1: Risks of U.S. Debt - Dalio believes that credit rating agencies underestimate credit risk as they only assess the risk of the government defaulting on its debt, failing to account for the larger risk that the government may print money to repay its debts, leading to significant losses for bondholders due to currency devaluation [2][3]. - For those concerned about the value of their money, the risks associated with U.S. government debt are much greater than what rating agencies communicate, implying that even if the government does not technically default, investors face substantial risks from inflation eroding purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - On the day of Dalio's comments, U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies experienced a downturn, but the decline did not persist following Moody's downgrade announcement. Initially, major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 317 points, over 0.7%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declining [4]. - U.S. Treasury prices also narrowed their losses during the day, with the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury briefly exceeding 4.56% before falling below 4.50% [6]. - UBS's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, stated that the recent credit rating action is merely a headline risk and does not signify a fundamental shift in the market, suggesting that it will not have a significant direct impact on financial markets [6].