“三分天下有其一”，是鸿蒙上限？

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the Harmony operating system is seen as a historical inevitability, driven by the need for a new technological ecosystem in response to the declining innovation vitality of the US-led single-core technology ecosystem [1][14][17]. Group 1: Development and Challenges of Harmony - Harmony OS is part of Huawei's "Root Technology Six Series," with the goal of making it widely recognized among consumers [2][3]. - The development of Harmony OS has faced delays, with the true version only being released in March and May of this year, indicating that the journey is just beginning [4][10]. - The system's growth is contingent on user adoption, with a target of reaching 100 million users primarily through the domestic market [32]. Group 2: Ecosystem and Market Dynamics - The ecosystem surrounding Harmony OS is crucial for its success, requiring a collaborative effort from various stakeholders, including developers and enterprises [27][31]. - The relationship between Harmony and WeChat reflects the complex dynamics of competition and cooperation within the ecosystem, highlighting the need for mutual survival [29][31]. - The development of Harmony is not just a Huawei initiative but a broader societal and industrial mobilization process [25]. Group 3: Global Context and Strategic Importance - The current technological landscape is characterized by a need for competition, as the single-core ecosystem has led to stagnation and monopolistic practices [15][14]. - The development of Harmony is positioned as a necessary step for China's high-tech self-reliance and a response to the geopolitical pressures faced by Huawei [20][14]. - The historical context of the internet's evolution is drawn parallel to Harmony's development, emphasizing the importance of a public goods approach to technology [9][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Vision - The vision for Harmony is to provide a viable alternative to existing systems, aiming to create a competitive landscape that fosters innovation [22][15]. - The expectation is that Harmony will eventually exceed the initial goal of capturing one-third of the market, although it currently faces the challenge of establishing a new ecosystem [23][24]. - The long-term success of Harmony will depend on its ability to adapt and grow organically, avoiding the pitfalls of rapid, unsustainable user influx [26][25].