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厄尔尼诺来袭,多地高温创记录,电力板块盈利持续改善
Ge Long Hui·2025-05-20 01:27

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unprecedented high temperatures across various regions in China, leading to increased electricity demand and a positive outlook for the power sector, particularly thermal power companies, amid the ongoing El Niño phenomenon [1][5][8]. Group 1: Weather and Climate Impact - Since mid-June, regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have experienced record-high temperatures ranging from 38°C to 41°C, with 14 national stations breaking historical extremes [1]. - The National Climate Center predicts that most areas in China will see temperatures close to or above normal for the summer, with certain regions experiencing significantly more days of high temperatures [1][6]. - The arrival of El Niño is expected to contribute to 2023 potentially being the hottest year on record, with implications for electricity consumption and demand [1][8]. Group 2: Electricity Demand and Load Growth - The ongoing high temperatures have led to a rapid increase in electricity load, with peak electricity demand occurring earlier than usual [1]. - National grid peak electricity load has risen from 596 million kW in 2010 to 1.29 billion kW in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% [12]. - On June 18, 2023, the Guangdong power grid reached a historical peak load of 128 million kW, with the southern grid surpassing 200 million kW for the first time [14]. Group 3: Power Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong stock market, companies like Huadian International Power, Huaneng International Power, and Datang Power have seen significant stock price increases of 31.3%, 26.83%, and 14.17% respectively this year [1]. - In the A-share market, companies such as Hangzhou Thermal Power and Guizhou Power have reported remarkable gains of 177.89% and 76.27% respectively since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - The thermal power sector is expected to see improved profitability due to lower coal prices and increased electricity demand, with a projected growth in electricity consumption of 4% in the third quarter of 2023 [16][20].