前沿观察 | 警报！油价低迷，美国页岩油产量即将触顶

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ members to increase oil production amid declining oil prices, which raises questions about future demand and the country's fiscal stability [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 2.7% in the first quarter of this year, with the non-oil sector contributing significantly, showing a growth rate of 4.2% [4]. - However, the economic growth trend reversed in the second quarter due to the close relationship between the non-oil sector and oil prices [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The Brent crude oil price needed for Saudi Arabia to balance its budget has risen to $96.20 per barrel, up from the previously mentioned $90 per barrel [5]. - In the first quarter, Saudi Arabia's fiscal budget deficit reached $15.6 billion, exceeding half of the annual budget deficit forecast [6]. - The total oil revenue for Saudi Arabia fell by 18% year-on-year to $40 billion, while non-oil revenue only grew by 2%, leading to a significant revenue shortfall [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If oil prices remain low, the fiscal deficit could expand to over $50 billion, with the government primarily relying on borrowing rather than depleting foreign reserves [6]. - Despite the challenges, the current situation may accelerate Saudi Arabia's economic diversification efforts, enhancing resilience against oil price fluctuations [8].