特朗普失算了，美商家疯抢中国产品，美国大豆在华市场却彻底失宠

Core Insights - The trade conflict between the US and China has led to a significant decline in the market share of US soybeans in China, dropping from 40% to 18% as Chinese buyers turn to Brazilian soybeans [1][3] - In 2024, China is expected to import 105 million tons of soybeans, with 74.65 million tons from Brazil and only 22.13 million tons from the US, indicating a drastic shift in sourcing [3][4] - The US soybean farmers are facing severe financial distress, with rising production costs and a lack of demand, leading to bankruptcy filings among farms [4][6] Industry Dynamics - Brazil has strategically invested in infrastructure to enhance soybean production and reduce transportation costs, making Brazilian soybeans more competitive in the Chinese market [6][10] - The introduction of low-protein feed alternatives in China has reduced the demand for soybeans by 8%, further exacerbating the oversupply situation for US soybeans [3][10] - The US retail sector is experiencing a 35% increase in inventory, with prices of Chinese goods rising by 12%, reflecting the broader economic impact of the trade tensions [8][10] Market Reactions - The ongoing trade war has led to a significant drop in soybean futures prices in the US, highlighting the disconnect between political rhetoric and market realities [11] - The situation illustrates the vulnerability of the US agricultural sector to international market shifts and the importance of adapting to changing supply chains [11]