长端利率博弈：宏观叙事重构下的长久期国债价值重估

Group 1: Market Overview - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 260 billion yuan as of May 16, with several products managing over 10 billion yuan, indicating a significant head effect [1] - The rise of bond ETFs is attributed to their stability, transparency, and convenience, gaining recognition from both institutional and individual investors amid increased volatility in the equity market [1] Group 2: Macro Policy Environment - In the first four months of 2025, new social financing reached 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, pushing the social financing stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [2] - The net financing of government bonds in April was 976.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 1 trillion yuan, supported by the early issuance of special government bonds [2] - The financial system's liabilities are expanding faster than assets, leading to increased demand for bond allocation as interbank liquidity remains ample [2] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - In April 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to March, while the CPI remained at -0.1%, indicating weak industrial production and demand [4] - The issuance pace of local government special bonds has slowed compared to previous years, creating a window for allocation in interest rate bonds [4] - The 30-year government bonds are highlighted for their hedging properties against economic downturns, serving as a "ballast" for market funds [4] Group 4: Global Geopolitical Context - The ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations have entered a "tug-of-war" phase, with heightened tensions in semiconductor and new energy sectors, leading to a conservative risk appetite in global capital [7] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Iran nuclear deal, have further intensified inflation expectations, enhancing the protective attributes of bonds [7] Group 5: Fund Performance and Investor Behavior - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时511130) has seen continuous net inflows, with a total of 446 million yuan over a week, indicating strong institutional investor interest [8] - Despite a slight price correction of 0.26%, the fund's scale increased to 6.717 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a month, reflecting a strong willingness among institutional investors to buy on dips [8] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year stands at 1.08, with a maximum drawdown of 6.89%, outperforming over 90% of bond funds, showcasing its defensive attributes [8]