辰韬资本萧伊婷：氢能是终局确定的赛道，技术上限将决定投资未来

Core Insights - Hydrogen energy is viewed as the next major opportunity following wind power, photovoltaics, and new energy storage, but it faces skepticism and challenges in commercialization [2][3] - Despite potential short-term downturns, hydrogen energy is considered a long-term viable sector, with significant growth expected around 2035 [3][16] Investment Strategy - Focus on companies with core technologies that can dominate future markets, and projects that can generate stable short-term revenue to withstand downturns [3][11] - Emphasis on sectors with large market sizes and minimal competition, particularly those that can effectively address the "West-to-East hydrogen transport" challenge [9][11] Technological Development - The hydrogen industry is experiencing rapid technological advancements, particularly in electrolyzers and hydrogen storage, but commercial viability remains to be proven [6][10] - The economic viability of hydrogen is closely linked to carbon pricing, with European carbon prices significantly higher than those in China, influencing market dynamics [6][12] Market Dynamics - The hydrogen sector's valuation is affected by global economic conditions and geopolitical factors, which can slow down climate and decarbonization policy implementation [12][13] - The importance of "correct subsidies" is highlighted, advocating for support directed towards leading technology companies to enhance overall industry competitiveness [4][5] Application Scenarios - Key application areas expected to see early breakthroughs include hydrogen-powered mining trucks and electricity peak shaving, driven by the increasing reliance on renewable energy sources [17][10] - The potential for natural hydrogen exploration in coastal regions of China is noted, with competitive production costs compared to traditional hydrogen sources [9][11]