期货看“五”评 | 聚烯烃：LL-PP是反弹还是反转？

Cost Side - LPG prices have become the most significant marginal variable for PP costs, especially after the commissioning of numerous PDH-based PP plants post-2022, reducing the impact of coal-based processes on PP [2] - From July to September 2023, LPG prices surged from 3,800 RMB/ton to 5,660 RMB/ton, an increase of nearly 50%, leading to a corresponding rise in PP prices from 6,900 RMB/ton to 8,100 RMB/ton, approximately a 17% increase [2] - The LL-PP price spread decreased significantly from 855 RMB/ton in July to 392 RMB/ton, a drop of 54% [2] - LPG valuation is currently much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha, suggesting that even with OPEC+ production increases leading to lower crude prices, LPG is expected to decline more sharply, further driving down PP prices and widening the LL-PP spread [2] Supply Side - The production mismatch between PP and LL is expected to accelerate the widening of the LL-PP spread, with a total PP production plan of 3.7 million tons, including nearly 2.2 million tons in June, while LL has only 1.4 million tons planned for the entire year [10] - The production mismatch in June 2023 mirrors that of 2022, with a significant 200,000 tons capacity mismatch, leading to expectations of a widening LL-PP spread starting from late May to early June [10] Export Side - In 2024, PP export volumes are expected to double year-on-year, reaching an average of 180,000 tons per month, marking a significant development for PP exports [11] - However, due to fluctuations caused by the U.S. "tariff sanctions" policy, PP export volumes have decreased compared to last year, which may support a bullish outlook for the LL-PP spread [11]