澳洲联储降息25个基点，就特朗普贸易战发出严厉警告

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, the lowest level in two years, in response to declining domestic inflation concerns [1] - Australia's inflation rate has significantly decreased since peaking in 2022, with the latest overall inflation data projected to reach 2.4% by the first quarter of 2025, the lowest in four years [1] - The RBA anticipates that inflation will drop to around 2% by the end of 2026, below its baseline forecast of 2.6%, while GDP levels are expected to be over 3% lower than baseline scenarios by mid-2027 [1] Group 2 - The RBA acknowledges that the recent trade truce between the US and China has alleviated some downside risks to global growth, but warns of potential escalation into a broader trade war that could significantly impact domestic GDP growth and increase unemployment rates [2] - In a trade war scenario, the RBA predicts that Australia's unemployment rate could rise to nearly 6% if the US reinstates higher tariffs in 2026 and other countries retaliate [2] - The RBA believes that higher tariffs could have a counter-inflationary effect on Australia, although a prolonged trade war may exacerbate inflationary pressures due to increased tariffs affecting a larger share of global trade [2]