大盘到底啥时候涨呢？

Core Viewpoint - The recent phase agreement in US-China trade negotiations has led to mixed market reactions, with A-shares experiencing a pullback while the Nasdaq has shown an upward trend, particularly in technology stocks [1][2][3]. Market Reactions - A-shares indices showed a volatile downward trend from May 12 to May 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining flat, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw slight declines. Northbound capital exhibited a net outflow during this period [2]. - In contrast, the Nasdaq experienced a significant upward trend, with an overall increase of over 7.18% during the same timeframe, and a single-day increase of 4.35% on May 12, driven by strong performances from tech giants like Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia, which saw gains of over 5% to 8% [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors expressed confusion regarding the lack of upward movement in the A-share market, with some attributing this to profit-taking by domestic institutions and concerns over ongoing negotiations before the 90-day pause ends [4]. - The market has shifted focus towards small-cap stocks, particularly following new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission that support mergers and acquisitions [4][5]. AI Sector Performance - Despite the overall market hesitation, the ChiNext AI Index recorded a cumulative increase of 17.50% from April 8 to May 19, indicating strong confidence in the AI sector [6]. - The US's recent adjustments to AI chip export rules, particularly targeting China, have intensified competition in the AI industry, suggesting a continued focus on the AI supply chain [7][8][10]. Domestic AI Industry Developments - Chinese companies are accelerating the self-sufficiency of the AI supply chain, with notable advancements in chip performance and application development. For instance, the Cambrian SiYuan 590 chip achieved 82% of the inference performance of Nvidia's A100 at one-third of the cost [10]. - Companies like Huawei and Jingjia Micro have made significant strides in AI applications and hardware, with substantial growth in orders and user coverage in various sectors [11][12]. Investment Opportunities - The AI sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) stands at 86, higher than the market average, but with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55% over the next three years, the PEG ratio of 1.56 remains attractive compared to semiconductors and new energy sectors [14]. - The launch of the ChiNext AI ETF (code: 159363) provides investors with a convenient way to gain exposure to leading companies in the AI industry, covering the entire supply chain from hardware to application [15][17].