华源证券：给予联美控股增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that 联美控股 (600167) is expected to see performance improvement in 2025 due to continued growth in heating area and declining coal prices, despite a decrease in net profit for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.87%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 659 million yuan, a decrease of 23.29% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.698 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 618 million yuan, an increase of 9.56% [1]. - The heating and steam business generated revenue of 2.275 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.05% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 556 million yuan, an increase of 10.96% [1]. Market Conditions - The average heating area for the company was approximately 77.04 million square meters in 2024, with a connected area of about 107.91 million square meters, showing slight growth compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - Since March 2025, the rapid decline in domestic thermal coal prices is expected to positively impact the company's performance, although the timing of the price drop is close to the end of the heating season [1]. Cash Flow and Valuation - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash on hand of 7.393 billion yuan and interest-bearing liabilities of approximately 1.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net cash position of about 5.5 billion yuan [3]. - The company's market capitalization was 13.8 billion yuan, and after accounting for net cash, the valuation of operating assets was 8.3 billion yuan, equivalent to 5-6 years of operating cash flow [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 817 million yuan, 853 million yuan, and 874 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 17, 16, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].