STARTRADER外汇：从“微笑”到“颦眉“，美元将迎二次探底？

Group 1 - The recent rebound of the US dollar index was short-lived, as market sentiment became stagnant again, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar asset allocation amid policy uncertainty and debt sustainability concerns [1] - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange strategy chief, George Saravelos, introduced the "Dollar Frown Curve" theory, which challenges the previous "Smile Curve" paradigm, indicating that the traditional view of the dollar strengthening during US economic dominance or global turmoil is being disrupted by the current fiscal imbalance and trade protectionism [1] - The US national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with debt servicing costs projected to reach $582.5 billion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, diminishing the "safe haven" status of dollar assets [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the negative impact of current tariff policies on manufacturing recovery is being underestimated, suggesting that corporate earnings expectations may be overly optimistic [3] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, highlighted that Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating does not fully reflect the risks of "monetizing debt," indicating that continued fiscal deterioration could erode the real returns for bondholders due to inflation [3] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging dilemma in balancing tariff disruptions and recession risks, with New York Fed President John Williams warning of the potential for simultaneous increases in inflation and unemployment [3] Group 3 - Historical data shows that in four out of six US recessions since 1980, the dollar strengthened, but the current cycle presents a different scenario where non-US economies exhibit relative policy stability while the US faces fiscal disorder and political deadlock [3] - This shift is weakening the dollar's safe-haven premium, as funds are not viewing the dollar as the default safe harbor even when non-US economic data is weak [3]