Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's attendance at the U.S. Congress discussion on comprehensive tax legislation highlights significant internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding government spending, green tax policies, and social safety net projects [2] - If the tax bill is successfully passed, it may lead to a decrease in the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would be unfavorable for gold and beneficial for the repatriation of profits by overseas companies [2] - The rising pressure of U.S. debt is weakening investor confidence in the dollar, posing a threat to its credibility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has not been able to break through the resistance at $3,250, maintaining a wide trading range between $3,120 and $3,250 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in June, leading Wall Street to lower oil price forecasts [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts an oversupply of 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, while Goldman Sachs notes increased downward pressure on oil prices due to high OPEC+ production capacity and recession risks [4] - ING's commodity head suggests that OPEC+'s production increase may lead to a year-long oversupply, compounded by uncertain demand due to tariff policies [4] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated signs of weakening economic activity, with inflation data moving closer to the 2% target, and uncertainty in tariff policies potentially leading to rising inflation [4] - Technical analysis shows oil prices have struggled to break above $62.50, with a likelihood of trading within a range of $55 to $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper has been trading in a range of $4.50 to $4.68 since last week, with the adjustment phase nearing its end [5] - There is a higher probability of an upward breakout, with resistance at $4.68 and support at $4.50 [5]
百利好晚盘分析：内部分歧加大 美元信用削弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-20 09:06