ETO MARKETS：鲍威尔七年劝言未被采纳，穆迪降级或仅为开端！

Core Viewpoint - The persistent structural imbalance in the U.S. fiscal trajectory has become a central concern for the Federal Reserve, as highlighted by Chairman Jerome Powell since 2018, indicating deep-rooted contradictions in the U.S. economic governance system [1] Group 1: Long-term Fiscal Trajectory Risks - Powell first articulated concerns about the erosion of the tax base due to aging population and rising healthcare costs at the 2018 Jackson Hole conference, noting that federal debt as a percentage of GDP has surpassed 78% [3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that if current policies continue, the baseline deficit rate will remain high at 5.8% over the next decade, with public debt projected to exceed 134% of GDP by 2035, nearly doubling from 2019 levels [3] - Powell emphasized the "non-cyclical" nature of fiscal imbalance, stating that even in a fully employed economy, mandatory spending as a percentage of GDP is increasing by 0.7 percentage points annually [3] Group 2: Credit Rating Downgrade and Market Anxiety - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 on May 17, marking the first such action since the 2011 S&P event, warning that if tax cuts from the Trump era are made permanent, the fiscal gap could expand by an additional $4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The report highlighted that while the U.S. economy is resilient, fiscal flexibility is declining at a rate of 1.2% per year, undermining its institutional advantages [4] - The White House's optimistic growth forecast faces challenges, including low productivity growth, limited labor force participation improvement, and geopolitical impacts on capital spending [4] Group 3: Policy Stalemate and Financial Risks - There is a fundamental divide between the two parties regarding fiscal reform, with Democrats advocating for corporate tax reform and taxes on the wealthy to raise $3.6 trillion, while Republicans support making the 2017 tax cuts permanent [5] - Powell reiterated a neutral stance on specific policy combinations but stressed that current debt dynamics are unsustainable [5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates that a 50 basis point increase in credit risk premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields could reduce GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points over the next five years [5] Group 4: Governance Challenges and Reform Outlook - Powell's warnings highlight the limitations of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) practices, as the Treasury's bond issuance is significantly outpacing the Fed's balance sheet reduction through quantitative tightening [6] - This policy mismatch has led to a rapid decline in reserve balances, prompting the New York Fed to increase its repurchase operations by $150 billion in May [7]