存款利率调降叠加LPR下行，对银行息差及存款影响几何

Group 1 - The six major banks collectively announced a reduction in deposit rates, with cuts ranging from 5 basis points (BP) to 25 BP, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 BP for both one-year and five-year terms [1][2] - The reduction in deposit rates is the largest in recent years, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, potentially leading to a shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [1][6] - According to CICC's static calculations, the impact of the LPR and deposit rate cuts on banks' net interest margin (NIM), revenue, and profit is an increase of 7 BP, 3 BP, and 6 BP respectively, indicating a generally positive effect on banks [2][3] Group 2 - The adjusted interest rates for fixed-term deposits are now 0.95% for one year, 1.05% for two years, 1.25% for three years, and 1.3% for five years, with significant reductions in the longer-term rates [2] - The average reduction in deposit rates is approximately 16 BP, which is greater than the LPR cut, reflecting a protective measure for banks' interest margins [2][3] - The ongoing low interest rate environment is expected to alleviate debt burdens for enterprises and households, stimulate economic activity, and stabilize banks' asset quality, despite causing a significant impact on listed banks' operating income [2][4] Group 3 - The net interest margin for listed banks is projected to decline by 2.20% year-on-year in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, with the average NIM expected to be 1.52% [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a further decrease in the net interest margin to 1.43%, which is significantly below the 1.8% warning level [4][5] - The trend of funds flowing from banks to non-bank financial institutions is exacerbated by the reduction in deposit rates, with a notable increase in bank liabilities to other financial companies [6]