散户爆买美股“意外”逼近新高，华尔街为何警告“风险被严重低估”？

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has seen six consecutive days of gains, nearing a bull market and only 3% away from its historical high [1] - Concerns arise after Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a potential "sell-off" pattern among global investors [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade was anticipated, and the market is better prepared compared to previous downgrades, resulting in less volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Fundstrat's Thomas Lee downplays the significance of the downgrade, stating it reflects known facts about the US deficit [4] - The current environment of declining interest rate expectations may mitigate the impact of the downgrade on US assets [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts could pressure the stock market if economic uncertainty persists [5] Group 3 - Retail investors have significantly increased their buying activity, with a record net purchase of $4.1 billion in US stocks on May 19 [6][8] - The influx of retail investment contrasts with institutional caution, leading to a divergence in market behavior [8][9] - The optimism among retail investors is attributed to a perceived easing of trade tensions, despite underlying risks [8][9] Group 4 - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warns of extreme complacency in the market, highlighting underestimation of risks related to the US deficit and tariffs [9] - Dimon predicts a potential decline in earnings forecasts, which could negatively impact stock prices [9][10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor key factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve policies for future market direction [10][11] Group 5 - The current valuation of the US stock market is above 21 times earnings, which is considered high compared to other countries [11] - Future performance may depend on the progress of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [11] - Analysts suggest that investors may need to balance their portfolios as the market approaches its historical highs [11]