JPM Investor Day Conference: Q2 IB Fees to Dip, 2025 NII May Rise by $1B

Core Insights - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the ongoing impact of Trump's tariffs, indicating that the full effects are not yet understood and could lead to economic challenges and higher inflation [1] - Economic uncertainty is expected to negatively affect JPMorgan's investment banking business, with a projected decline in IB fees by mid-teens percentage year-over-year [2] - Despite challenges, JPMorgan's markets revenues are anticipated to grow in the mid-to-high single-digits range due to increased market volatility and client activity [3] Economic Outlook - CFO Jeremy Barnum mentioned that the evolving tariff environment and geopolitical tensions contribute to economic uncertainty, but he expects net interest income (NII) to increase by $1 billion this year, maintaining the NII outlook at $94.5 billion, which is nearly a 2% increase year-over-year [4] - Competitors Bank of America and Wells Fargo also expect NII growth, with Bank of America projecting a 6-7% increase and Wells Fargo anticipating a 1-3% rise compared to 2024 levels [5] Operational Insights - JPMorgan reiterated its non-interest expense outlook for 2025 at $95 billion and emphasized the role of artificial intelligence in enhancing efficiency, with a technology budget of $18 billion for the year, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year [6] - The Consumer and Community Banking segment expects a 10% reduction in headcount over the next five years, while maintaining a card net charge-off (NCO) rate of approximately 3.6% [7] Strategic Initiatives - Dimon announced that JPMorgan will offer Bitcoin ownership to clients but will not hold it in custody, expressing skepticism about Bitcoin due to its association with illegal activities [8] - The company remains open to acquisitions but is cautious about integration challenges, having been quiet on buyouts since acquiring assets from First Republic Bank in May 2023 [9] Performance Metrics - Over the past year, JPMorgan's shares have increased by 32.8%, outperforming the industry growth of 27% [10]