Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and changes in Indonesian policies, leading to a complex supply-demand dynamic in the nickel market [2][4][6]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices dropped to a low of 115,000 yuan/ton in early April due to heightened risk aversion from trade conflicts, but later recovered to a range around 125,000 yuan/ton as market sentiment improved [2]. - The price of nickel has been constrained within a narrow range, primarily due to a shift in trading logic and the oversupply in the nickel industry, particularly from Indonesia [4][16]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted the tax rates on nickel products, increasing the nickel ore tax from a fixed 10% to a floating rate of 14%-19%, which is expected to provide some price support [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Indonesia's nickel resources are becoming increasingly significant in the global market, with the country implementing various policies that impact nickel pricing and supply [5][6]. - The global supply of refined nickel has been in surplus, with inventories rising from 50,000 tons to around 250,000 tons, indicating a growing imbalance in the market [13]. - Domestic demand for nickel, particularly in the stainless steel sector, is under pressure due to slow recovery in real estate transactions and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][15]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - China's refined nickel production has increased significantly, with a cumulative output of 140,000 tons in the first four months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [11]. - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises remains high at 96.94%, indicating robust production levels despite external challenges [11]. - New production capacities in Indonesia and China are gradually displacing traditional high-cost nickel producers, leading to a shift in the global supply landscape [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of wide-ranging fluctuations, with strong cost support from Indonesian policies and ongoing supply constraints limiting downward price movements [16]. - The end of the rainy season in the Philippines is anticipated to increase nickel ore shipments, which may lead to a more relaxed supply situation [16]. - The overall sentiment in the nickel market is cautious, with steel mills adopting a conservative approach to raw material procurement amid a backdrop of weakening demand [16].
成本支撑出现松动，镍价僵局能否打破？
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-20 13:58