2 Reasons Netflix's 40% Rally Is Far From Over

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's stock has surged over 40% since early April, reaching a price range above $1,000, driven by strong earnings and subscriber growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Netflix reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 12.5% year-over-year [2]. - Operating income rose by 27%, and operating margin improved to 32%, up from 28% a year earlier, with management forecasting a 33% margin for Q2 and reaffirming a full-year target of 29% [3]. - The company expects full-year revenue between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, surpassing previous guidance and consensus estimates [3]. - Netflix added 18.91 million net new subscribers in the quarter, significantly exceeding expectations of 9.18 million, marking the highest quarterly net addition in company history [4]. Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Following strong earnings, analysts have raised their price targets for Netflix, with Wolfe Research setting a new target of $1,340, Robert Baird at $1,300, and Canaccord Genuity at $1,380 [5]. - These targets suggest more than 15% upside potential from the current stock price, indicating a belief that the recent price surge is a new baseline for future growth [6]. - Analysts highlight Netflix's ability to monetize its subscriber base through pricing, premium content, and a growing ad business, positioning it favorably against competitors [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the positive outlook, J.P. Morgan downgraded Netflix to Neutral from Overweight, citing a balanced risk/reward profile after the stock's significant rally [8]. - The firm acknowledges Netflix's long-term leadership in global streaming but anticipates a potential capital rotation away from defensive stocks like Netflix as macro conditions improve [9]. - Analysts suggest that any pullbacks in Netflix's stock should be viewed as a natural pause in a longer-term uptrend, supported by the company's global scaling and advertising revenue growth [10].