分析人士：关注美线货量增长情况

Core Insights - The substantial progress in high-level Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks has led to a significant rebound in the European shipping index futures, with the main contract EC2508 closing at 2387 points, reflecting a nearly 50% increase over the past week [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in the European shipping index is primarily driven by expectations of restored exports from Chinese companies to the U.S., leading to a "rush for shipping" [1] - The 90-day tariff exemption period has prompted traders to enter a "rush for shipping," resulting in some routes experiencing "overcapacity" [2] - Shipping companies are actively pushing for capacity to return to the U.S. routes, with a reported 25% reduction in capacity on U.S. routes due to previous trade tensions [2] Group 2: Capacity Adjustments - Since the announcement of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, shipping companies have transferred a total of 10 vessels, equating to 130,000 TEU, from U.S. routes to European routes [3] - The number of canceled sailings to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a reduction of 5 sailings in the week of May 19-23 [3] - The average weekly capacity for the European route in June is projected to be 290,000 TEU, which is a 12% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The SCFI rates for U.S. West and East routes have increased by 31.7% and 22% respectively, with current rates at $3091/FEU and $4069/FEU [2] - Major shipping companies have raised their quotes for the European route to between $3000 and $3400/FEU for the first half of June [2][5] - Despite the price increases, there is skepticism about the sustainability of these hikes due to high capacity levels and the absence of widespread "overcapacity" [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with significant attention on the European route and the potential impact of U.S. tariff policy adjustments [7] - The actual realization of price increases in June remains uncertain, with expectations that the market will continue to assess the true demand from the U.S. [6][7] - The futures market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by the dynamics of supply and demand, particularly in relation to U.S. shipping volumes [6][7]